2024 - Round 14 : Pushing On

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There are only six games this week and a very mixed bag they are at that, with three games expected to be won by less than 3 goals, and the remaining three expected to be won by between about 20 and 40 points.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Five of the six games this week have contrarian head-to-head forecasts, with three of those coming from Home Sweet, and two from Consult the Ladder.

Pending what MoSHPlay ultimately serves up, we’re probably in for no changes at the important end of the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard this week.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games, including 24 points in the Roos v Pies game, 14 points in the Crows v Swans game, 12 points in the Lions v Saints game, and 11 points in the Tigers v Hawks game.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in four games this week. No other forecaster has this status in more than two games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Crows v Swans (11% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and MoSHBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE in three.

WAGERS

A little more dancing this week, some on the Lions, and some on the Pies (and a little on overs/unders, too, but that’s for another blog).

With the Lions, Investors initially wanted 5.6% at $1.90 for Lions -24.5, but ended with:

  • 1.4% at -24.5

  • 1.4% at -26.5

  • 0.9% at -28.5

With the Pies we got a little closer to the desired 6.2% at $1.90 for Pies -38.5, but we eventually snagged:

  • 1.4% at -38.5

  • 4% at -40.5

In the end, Investors have 2 head-to-head bets totalling 9% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and 3 line bets totalling almost 12% of the Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that risk is smeared almost equally across 3 teams this week, with Collingwood narrowly carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) in that the difference between a Pies win by 41 poins or more and a Pies win by less than 39 points represents a swing of 6.7c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Brisbane Lions (6.5%), and then Adelaide (5.6%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 9c, while a worst case set would snip almost 10c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.