2024 - Round 14 : Overs/Unders

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There are a few more sizeable than usual differences between the twins’ and the bookmakers’ Total forecasts this week, all of which has left the twins’ average about 3 points below the bookmakers’.

The debate this week amongst the four forecasters is around the highest scoring game, and the lowest scoring team:.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: GWS v Port Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: North Melbourne v Collingwood

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Brisbane Lions v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Collingwood

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: St Kilda

  • Bookmakers: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Investors have wagers in five games this week, on unders in four and overs in one, as one other possible overs wager on the Crows v Swans game was rained out.

This week we danced with the bookmakers on the Lions v Saints game where, ideally, we’d have 5.8% on the u162.5 offered by Sportsbet at $1.88. Instead, we have 4.9% at that line and price, and another 0.5% on u161.5 at $1.90.

The estimated overlays for the games where we do have wagers are between about 4 and 11 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.8% to 5.4% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared around this week, with only Sportsbet missing out entirely:

  • Game Margins: TAB

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

No season-long title switched hands this week, and the leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 24 points ahead of Sportsbet and 39 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 19 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 43 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 23 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 42 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 9 points ahead of the TAB, 14 points of Sportsbet, and 25 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had six wagers last week, two overs with the TAB that finished 1 and 1, two unders with the TAB that also finished 1 and 1, and two unders with Sportsbet that finished 2 and 0.

It ended then at 16 and 19 with the TAB, and at 15 and 7 with Sportsbet, for an overall 31 and 26 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 5 from 8 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 61 from 114 (54%) against the TAB, and 63 from 114 (55%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS also landed 5 from 8 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, which took it to 61 from 114 (54%) against the TAB, and 62 from 114 (54%) against Sportsbet.