2024 - Team Ratings After Round 11
/There really is no complete hierarchy of team ratings emerging as we see 12 teams changing places again on MoSSBODS and 11 teams changing places on MoSHBODS.
This week, however, the moves were, on average, smaller, with the only multi-spot movers on both Systems being:
Brisbane Lions: down two places on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS
GWS: up two places on MoSSBODS and three places on MoSHBODS
At the end of it all, both Systems have the same Top 4 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Melbourne.
On both Systems, the Ratings remain compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 3.7 Scoring Shots (which is about 14 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only just over 16 points.
Still, the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9951 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.6 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now with Top 3s of Swans, Dogs, and Blues, while on defence MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Dees, Pies, and Dockers, and MoSHBODS has Dees, Dockers, and Pies.
MoSSBODS still has 9 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has 10. MoSSBODS also has 14 teams rated as above average on defence while MoSHBODS has 13.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 11.
Still a very mediocre/evenly balanced bunch.
On MoSSBODS, 9 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (up1), 3 are rated negatively on both (down 1), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.76, which is an extremely high reading, now suggesting that team’s relative offensive and defensive abilities are similar.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked nine teams this week, leaving Sydney in 1st, but elevating Melbourne into 2nd, and Western Bulldogs into 3rd.
The only team that moved by more than a single spot were the Brisbane Lions, who fell four places back into 6th.
As we’ve continued to see here too, there is considerable Rating compression on MARS (although Sydney is developing a gap at the very top), and now we have only 12 Rating Points separating 2nd from 11th. Previous analyses have suggested that a MARS Rating Point is equivalent to roughly 0.75 to 0.8 points, so this gap equates to about 10 points.
There are still 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon and Port Adelaide
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, and Collingwood
MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 11, ahead of MoSSBODS with 5, and MoSHBODS with just 2.
MARS remains particularly different in terms of its ranking of Geelong and Carlton.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 6 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS only 4, but MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about 11 teams.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Carlton (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that there are now only three teams altogether for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.
There are also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Essendon, North Melbourne, and Sydney.
