2024 - Round 12 : Hurdles
/All but one of this week’s seven games (yes, it’s another bye round!) is expected to be won by less than 14 points, the Geelong v Richmond game being the only exception. The expected number of favourite wins is just 4.3 from 7 and the average expected margin is only 10.2 points per game.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
There are four games this week with contrarian head-to-head forecasts, including the Eagles v Saints game where Consult the Ladder, the RSMP twins, ENS_Linear, and MoSSBODS_Marg are on the Saints. The Western Bulldogs (MoSHBODS_Marg), Hawthorn (Home Sweet Home and MoSSBODS_Marg), and Essendon (Consult the Ladder) are the other underdogs enjoying some support.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 27 points in the Cats v Tigers game, 14 points in the Pies v Dogs and Suns v Dons games, 12 points in the Hawks v Crows game, and 11 points in the Eagles v Saints game.
The MoS twins have Extreme Predictor status in three games this week.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Suns v Dons (16% points), Pies v Dogs (15% points), Cats v Tigers (13%), and Hawks v Crows (10% points).
Bookie_LPSO and MoSHBODS_Prob have Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and MoSSBODS_Prob in three.
WAGERS
It’s been another frustrating week attempting to get set, with Sportsbet putting up the shutters on both forms of betting. In summary:
On Western Bulldogs $2.50 we got 4.3% of the 4.4% we wanted at $2.50
On Western Bulldogs +10.5 we got only 1.4% of the 3.7% we wanted, and so took another 0.9% at +7.5
On Hawthorn +5.5 we got only 1.4% of the 3.5% we wanted, and so took another 1.6% at +4.5
On St Kilda +3.5 we got all of the 1.2% we wanted
On Richmond $10.50 we got 0.7% of the 1.8% we wanted, and so took another 1% at $10
On Richmond +46.5 we got all of the 5.7% we wanted (although needed to spread it across both bookmakers)
On Fremantle $2.76 we got all of the 1.1% we wanted
On Gold Coast $1.73 we got all of the 6.5% we wanted
On Gold Coast -4.5 we got all of the 4.9% we wanted (although needed to spread it across both bookmakers)
At this point - not that I think either bookmaker will care - I’m seriously contemplating going sole Betfair next year if they can actually get some liquidity on AFL markets early in the week.
Anyway, in the end, Investors have 4 head-to-head bets totalling almost 14% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and 5 line bets totalling just over 17% of the Line Fund.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The round’s once again odd-looking Ready Reckoner reveals that risk is spread across 6 teams this week, but with Richmond again carrying by far the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) in that the difference between a Tigers win and a loss by 47 points or more represents a swing of 11.3c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Gold Coast (8.9%), Western Bulldogs (5.4%), Hawthorn (3.8%), St Kilda (1.5%), and then Fremantle (0.8%).
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by over 17c, while a worst case set would snip over 14c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
