2024 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders

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There are some larger differences in both directions at the individual game level again this week but, overall, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly higher Totals than the bookmakers, though still lower than the season-to-date average of 166.2 points per game.

The only debate this week amongst the four forecasters in around which team will register the low score.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Geelong v Richmond

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Melbourne v Frmantle

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Geelong

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Fremantle

  • Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

Investors have two wagers this week, both unders as two other possible overs wagers were prohibited by the rain rule.

(In the Thursday night game it was, again, tempting to overturn this decision because the rain is forecast only through the afternoon and the estimated overlay is over 20 points. On the downside, though, is that fairly strong winds are forecast and might continue through game time.)

The estimated overlays for the games where we do have wagers are about 5 and 8 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.7% to 3.1% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared around this week, with only MoSHBODS missing out after sweeping the lot last week:

  • Game Margins: TAB

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: TAB/Sportsbet (tied)

No season-long title switched hands this week, and the leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 7 points ahead of the Sportsbet and 58 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 26 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 48 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 16 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 19 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 10 points ahead of the TAB and 16 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had sixwagers last week, winning three and losing three, which was quite the feat given that it picked correctly in six games and wrongly in only three. In other words, it wagered on all the games in got wrong and on only half of the games it got right.

The six wagers were three unders with the TAB that went 1 and 2, and three overs with Sportsbet that went 2 and 1.

It ended then at 14 and 16 with the TAB, and at 13 and 6 with Sportsbet (perhaps that’s why I’m finding it harder to get set with Sportsbet now), for an overall 27 and 22 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 6 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet for the third week running. That took it to 55 from 98 (56%) against the TAB, and 57 from 99 (58%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS also landed 6 from 9 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, which took it to 55 from 99 (56%) against the TAB, and 56 from 99 (58%) against Sportsbet.