2024 - Round 17 : Well, We Might

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Round 17 starts well, with the first five games expected to be won by about 3 goals or less, but threatens to disappoint after that with four games expected to be won by between about 20 and 44 points, three of which involve a team from the Top 8 playing a team from the Bottom 5.

The all-game average expected margin is 17.9 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism is extremely rare this week, with Home Sweet Home providing 4/7ths of it and the only other contributors being Consult The Ladder, and ENS_Linear.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games this week, including 14 in the Roos v Suns, and Dees v Eagles games, 12 in the Dockers v Tigers game, and 10 points in the Saints v Swans, and Lions v Crows games.

Bookie_9 has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and RSMP_Simple in three games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are no games with a double-digit percentage point forecast range (for the second week in a row).

Bookie_LPSO and MoSSBODS_Prob have Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and Bookie_OE and MoSHBODS_Prob in three each.

WAGERS

It’s a much quieter week for Investors - even quieter thanks to the risk aversion of Sportsbet.

This week the dance was in relation to two line bets:

  • We wanted 2.6% of the Line Fund on Gold Coast -16.5 at $1.90 but eventually had to settle for 1.4% at that line and price, and another 0.2% at the same price but a -18.5 point line

  • We also wanted 2.5% on Brisbane Lions -28.5 at $1.90, but settled for 1.4% at that price and line, and then another 0.6% at the same price but a line of -29.5

In total, Investors have 1.8% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on two smallish wagers, and 5.5% of the original Line Fund on three wagers ranging in size from the medium to the large,

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner reveals that Hawthorn carry the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a win and an 11-point loss represents 3.2% of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is borne by Brisbane Lions (2.5%), then Gold Coast (1.9%), and then St Kilda (0.4%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 4c, while a worst case set would snip the same amount off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.