2024 - Team Ratings After Round 16
/MoSSBODS reranked 13 teams this week, and MoSHBODS 15, but still have the same Top 6 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Collingwood.
Five teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS: GWS down 4, Essendon down 3, Hawthorn up 3, and Geelong and Adelaide up 2 each. Four moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS: Essendon down 3, GWS down 2, and Hawthorn and Adelaide up 2 each. After those moves, Essendon, despite sitting 4th on the competition ladder are now ranked 14th by both Systems.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 12th separated are now separated by just 4.6 Scoring Shots (which is about 16 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by just 15 points.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9941 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.72 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now with Top 3s of Swans, Lions, and Blues, while on defence MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Dockers, Dees, and Swans, and MoSHBODS now has Dockers, Swans, and Dees.
MoSSBODS now has nine teams rated as above average on offence, and MoSHBODS still has nine. Also, MoSSBODS still has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now has 11 so rated.
Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS span a range of 8.6 scoring shots (about 31 points) and defensive ratings a range of 6.4 scoring shots (about 23 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 29.4 points and defensive ratings a range of 23.8 points.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 16.
Sydney remains the only team with a Rating in the top 50% of those that went on to play in a Grand Final.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 4 are rated negatively on both (no change), two are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.69, which is up a little on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked eight teams this week, but left Sydney in 1st and swapped Carlton into 2nd ahead of Brisbane Lions.
Below them, Geelong and Hawthorn rose 2 spots, and GWS and Essendon fell 2 spots. No other teams moved by more than a single spot.
About 21 Rating Points now separates 2nd from 10th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of just under 3 goals.
By way of comparison, at the end of Round 16 last season, the gap between 2nd and 10th was just over 25 Rating Points, or roughly 20 points.
There are now 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Hawthorn on 996.3 a reasonable chance of joining this group.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions (and, to a lesser extent, Hawthorn)
MARS again provides the most outlying rankings this week at 10, ahead of MoSSBODS with 7, and MoSHBODS with 2.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Adelaide and Hawthorn.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 7 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about only 3, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 10.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Hawthorn (5 spots) has the widest range of rankings, but that there are now only four teams altogether for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots (Adelaide, GWS, and Melbourne being the teams to add).
There are also now three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: North Melbourne, Sydney, and Western Bulldogs
