2024 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders

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The twins, again this week and relatively speaking, have some quite different opinions about likely Totals, whilst the bookmakers are their usual highly-correlated selves.

Overall, MoSHBODS is again the most optimistic in terms of the average forecast Total.

The debate this week is across everything except the likely lowest-scoring team:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

  • MoSHBODS: GWS v Carlton

  • TAB: Geelong v Hawthorn

  • Sportsbet: Geelong v Hawthorn, and North Melbourne v Gold Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Melbourne v West Coast

  • Bookmakers: St Kilda v Sydney

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Fremantle

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: West Coast

  • Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

Investors have wagers in four games this week, three unders and one overs, each of which has again been accommodated by a single bookmaker. Two other overs bets have been passed due to expected rain.

The four wagers total just over 16% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the games where we do have wagers are between 6.4 and 11.6 points, and the wager sizes range from 2.4% to 5.1% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared between the TAB and MoSHBODS this week:

  • Game Margins: TAB

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODSTAB

  • Away Team Scores: TAB

  • Game Totals: TAB

No title switched hands this week, and the leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 22 points ahead of Sportsbet and 81 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 16 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 25 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 3 points ahead of the TAB, 15 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 21 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 6 points ahead of the TAB, 11 points of Sportsbet, and 30 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had wagers on five games last week, one overs with the TAB that finished 0 and 1, three unders with the TAB that finished 2 and 1, and one unders with Sportsbet that finished 0 and 1.

It ended then at 19 and 25 with the TAB, and at 18 and 10 with Sportsbet, for an overall 37 and 35 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 5 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 73 from 135 (54%) against the TAB, and 75 from 135 (56%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 4 from 9 against the TAB, which took it to 71 from 135 (53%) against the TAB, and only 3 from 9 against Sportsbet, which took it to 71 from 135 (53%).

Rather impressively, that means MoSSBODS has predicted winners at a higher rate in games it’s not wagered on compared to games that is has.