2024 - Round 13 : Renewed Vigour

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All but one of this week’s eight games is expected to be won by less than about 3 goals, Thursday’s Adelaide v Richmond game being the only exception. The expected number of favourite wins is 5.1 from 8 and the average expected margin is only 12.8 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There are four games this week with contrarian head-to-head forecasts with Home Sweet Home tipping Hawthorn, Home Sweet Home and MoSHBODS_Marg tipping St Kilda, Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder tipping Essendon, and ENS_Linear tipping Melbourne.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 15 points in the Eagles v Roos game, 13 points in the Crows v Tigers game, and 11 points in the Hawks v Giants, Swans v Cats, and Pies v Dees games.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week. No other forecaster has this status in more than two games.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there is only one game with a double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Eagles v Roos (12% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and MoSHBODS_Prob, Bookie_OE, and Bookie_RE in three.

WAGERS

The only wagering dance this week was centred on West Coast in the line market where Investors were looking for 5% on the Eagles -18.5 points at $1.90. They ended with, all at $1.90:

  • 2% at -18.5

  • 0.5% at -19.5

  • 1.1% at -20.5

Sportsbet were no longer interested in dancing with us at this point, and the TAB line moved to -21.5 at which we’d only want 3.7% exposure, so I left it there.

So, in the end, Investors have 4 head-to-head bets totalling almost 11% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and 3 line bets totalling 6.5% of the Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that risk is spread across 6 teams again this week, with West Coast carrying by far the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) in that the difference between an Eagles win by 21 poins or more and an Eagles loss represents a swing of 6.3c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Collingwood (4.1%), Hawthorn (2.7%), Carlton (1.3%), Sydney (1.2%), and then St Kilda (0.6%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by over 7c, while a worst case set would snip 9c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.