2024 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders

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The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ and the bookmakers’ Totals forecasts is about 1 goal per game this week, despite the fact that the all-game averages are roughly equal at around 166 to 168 points per game.

The only debate this week amongst the four forecasters in around which team will register the low score.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Sydney v Geelong

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: St Kilda v Gold Coast

  • Bookmakers: West Coast v North Melbourne

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: West Coast

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS: North Melbourne

  • MoSHBODS and Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

Investors have six wagers this week, four unders and two overs, as one other possible overs wager on the Eagles v Roos game was prohibited by the rain rule.

(That passed overs bet is another tempting wager given the estimated 17-point overlay. Next year I might well refine the rain rule to reflect the size of the overlay, especially if the Total is covered this week in that game.)

The estimated overlays for the games where we do have wagers are between about 4 and 9 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.3% to 4% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were barely shared around this week, with MoSSBODS missing out on sweeping the lot only by Sportsbet taking the Game Totals honours:

  • Game Margins: MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Game Totals: Sportsbet

No season-long title switched hands this week, and the leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 18 points ahead of the Sportsbet and 43 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 26 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 49 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 17 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 28 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 7 points ahead of the TAB, 11 points of Sportsbet, and 18 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had two wagers last week, both unders and both losers, one with the TAB and one with Sportsbet.

It ended then at 14 and 17 with the TAB, and at 13 and 7 with Sportsbet, for an overall 27 and 24 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed a startling 1 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 56 from 106 (53%) against the TAB, and 58 from 106 (55%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS also landed only 1 from 9 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, which took it to 56 from 106 (53%) against the TAB, and 57 from 106 (54%) against Sportsbet.