2024 - Team Ratings After Round 12
/There was a little less volatility this week, as MoSSBODS reranked just 10 teams, and MoSHBODS only eight, leaving them both with the same Top 5 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Collingwood, and Brisbane Lions.
Only three teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS (Carlton up 2 into 3rd, Melbourne down 3 into 7th, and Geelong down 2 into 10th) and only two did likewise on MoSHBODS (Carlton up 3 into 3rd, and Melbourne down 5 into 9th).
Ratings compression remains on both Systems with MoSSBODS’ 1st and 11th are separated by only 4.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 15 points), and MoSHBODS’ 1st and 10th separated by only just over 15 points.
Still, the correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9951 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.6 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now with Top 3s of Swans, Blues, and Dogs, while on defence MoSSBODS has a Top 3 of Dockers, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS has Dockers, Lions, and Swans.
MoSSBODS still has 9 teams rated as above average on offence, while MoSHBODS has 10. MoSSBODS also has 14 teams rated as above average on defence while MoSHBODS has only 11.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 12.
Like a broken record, the message is still much the same: the 2024 teams are a generally mediocre/very evenly balanced bunch.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 4 are rated negatively on both (up 1), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change3.
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.76, which remains quite high in an historical context and still suggesting that team’s relative offensive and defensive abilities are similar.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked nine teams this week, leaving Sydney in 1st, but elevating Western Bulldogs into 2nd, and Geelong into 3rd from 5th.
The other teams that moved by more than a single spot were Carlton up 6 spots into 4th, Fremantle up 6 spots into 5th, Collingwood down 3 spots into 7th, Melbourne down 7 spots into 9th, Port Adelaide down 2 spots into 10th, and Adelaide down 2 spots into 11th. That’s quite a lot of big movement for MARS.
There remains, however, considerable Rating compression on MARS with only 9 Rating Points now separating 2nd from 11th, which roughly equates to a gap of only about 7 points.
There are still 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions (which are, once again, based firstly on percent of competition points obtained and then on percentage), we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon (and possibly Geelong)
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions (and possibly Collingwood)
MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 12, ahead of MoSSBODS with 5, and MoSHBODS with just 2.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Fremantle and Geelong.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of 5 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS only 4, while MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about 11 teams.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Geelong (7 spots) has the widest range of rankings, and that there are now only four teams altogether for whom the rankings span a range of more than two spots.
There are also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: North Melbourne, Sydney, and Western Bulldogs.
