The only moves on MoSSBODS this week involved Brisbane Lions climbing above Western Bulldogs, and Port Adelaide falling below Collingwood and Sydney. It means that, as far as MoSSBODS is concerned, the remaining two teams in the competition are ranked 2nd and 6th.

MoSHBODS reranked only two teams, dropping Port Adelaide below Collingwood. So, for MoSHBODS the remaining two teams in the competition are ranked 3rd and 7th.

On MoSSBODS, 1st and 10th are now separated by only 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 22 points.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9958 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.77 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Lions, Dogs, and Cats, while MoSHBODS still has it as Cats, Lions, and Hawks. On defence, MoSSBODS still has a Top 3 of Hawks, Dogs, and Saints, while MoSHBODS now has it as Hawks, Dogs, and Lions.

MoSSBODS still has eight teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS has 11. Also, MoSSBODS has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now has 11.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 9.9 scoring shots (about 36 points) and defensive ratings a range of 11 scoring shots (about 40 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 32 points and defensive ratings a range of about 41 points.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.

On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), only 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.78, which is up a touch on last week.

GRAND FINALIST RATINGS

Before we get MARS’ views, let’s first have a look at how MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS rate the two Grand Finalists in an historical context.

Looking at these charts, it’s intriguing why Sydney find themselves currently as about one goal favourites. Should they win, they will be amongst the lowest-rated teams to do so.

And, finally, to MARS, whose only move this week was to push Port Adelaide below Carlton and Fremantle.

The two Grand Finalists, Sydney and Brisbane Lions, hold down 1st and 2nd place and are separated by only 1.4 Rating Points.

By way of comparison, last year’s Grand Finalists, Collingwood and Brisbane Lions, were separated by 5.3 Rating Points going into the game, and the year before that, Geelong and Sydney were separated by over 15 Rating Points.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 4 teams now, and MoSSBODS and MARS about 8, while MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about 10 teams.

Again by way of comparison, the same figures for last season going into the Grand Final were 5, 5, and 13.

On balance, I’d say there’s been far less alignment across the MoS Team Rating Systems this season.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Sydney still has the widest range of rankings at six spots, and that there are six other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.

There are also four teams that the Systems unanimously rank: North Melbourne, Fremantle, Richmond, and West Coast.