2024 - Team Ratings After Round 17
/MoSSBODS reranked only seven teams this week, and MoSHBODS only nine, but now have only the same Top 4 of Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Western Bulldogs. Sydney benefited from the fact that, despite losing, they generated 8 more scoring shots than their opponents.
Six teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS: Hawthorn down 5, Collingwood and Melbourne down 2 each, Port Adelaide and Essendon up 3 each, and Geelong up 2. Five moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS: Hawthorn down 4, Gold Coast down 2, Port Adelaide and Essendon up 3 each, and Geelong up 2. After those moves, Essendon, despite sitting 4th on the competition ladder are now ranked 11th by both Systems.
On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 14th separated are now separated by just 5.1 Scoring Shots (which is about 19 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by just 13.5 points. It remains, in large part, an absurdly close competition this year.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9934 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.72 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still with Top 3s of Swans, Lions, and Blues, while on defence MoSSBODS both have now agreed on a Top 3 of Dockers, Swans, and Dees.
MoSSBODS still has nine teams rated as above average on offence, as does MoSHBODS. Also, MoSSBODS now has 14 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now has only 10 so rated.
Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS span a range of 8.5 scoring shots (about 31 points) and defensive ratings a range of just 6 scoring shots (about 22 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 28.8 points and defensive ratings a range of 22.6 points. That suggests that offensive abilities span a greater range than defensive abilities across the 18 teams this season. Somewhat bearing that out is the fact that the teams’ points for values span a range of 618 whilst their points against span a range of just 551 points.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 17.
Sydney remains the only team with a Rating in the top 50% of those that went on to play in a Grand Final.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (up 1), 3 are rated negatively on both (down 1), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (Down 1), and 6 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.69, which is about the same as last week.
And, finally, to MARS, which uncharacteristically re-ranked 15 teams this week, but left Sydney in 1st and swapped Brisbane Lions back into 2nd ahead of Carlton.
Below them, Geelong, Fremantle and Port Adelaide rose 2 spots, Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn fell 2 spots, and Collingwood fell 3 spots No other teams moved by more than a single spot.
Just under 20 Rating Points now separates 2nd from 11th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of just over 2-and-a-half goals.
By way of comparison, at the end of Round 17 last season, the gap between 2nd and 11th was almost 28 Rating Points, or roughly 22 points.
There are now 11 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Gold Coast on 998.7 a reasonable chance of rejoining this group.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:
HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon
LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions
MARS again provides the most outlying rankings this week at 10, ahead of MoSSBODS with 6, and MoSHBODS with 5.
MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of Essendon.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 4 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS about 7, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS also about 7.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that 5 teams have the widest range of rankings, but they span only 3 places: Adelaide, Essendon, GWS, Hawthorn, and Port Adelaide.
There are also three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, and Sydney.
