2024 - Round 9 : The Funds Have No Memory
/In another challenging week for forecasters, five of the nine matches are expected to be won by less than 2 goals, and two more by less than 4 goals, leaving only the two expected 7-goal blowouts as something approaching bankers. The expected number of favourite wins is only 5.1 from 9 and the average expected margin is just 18.2 points per game.
Also, the average ladder places between opponents this week is a tiny 4.3, aided by the fact that all of the teams currently in the Top 8 meet another from the Top 8.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Only MoSSBODS_Marg - about whom it must be said is having quite the contrarian year by its standards - has joined Home Sweet Home this week in forecasting underdog victories. Home Sweet Home has done that in four games, MoSSBODS_Marg in three.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, including 17 points in the Crows v Lions game, 16 points in the Hawks v Saints and Pies v Eagles games, and 13 points in the Suns v Roos game.
MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_3 have Extreme Predictor status in four games this week, and Bookie_9 and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Crows v Lions (18% points) and Hawks v Tigers (14% points).
MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in seven games again this week, and Bookie_LPSO and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.
WAGERS
The fearless - and unfinancially committed - models have left Investors with six head-to-head bets totalling just over 8% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and four line bets totalling 16% of the Line Fund, as set out below. I fear we’re going to need to get used to this.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
On the plus side, the round’s Ready Reckoner reveals that risk is a little less concentrated this week, with the Brisbane Lions carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) in that the difference between a Lions win and a loss by 7 points or more represents a swing of 8.2c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Hawthorn (7.7%), Richmond (3.4%), Essendon (2.7%), West Coast (2.2%), Fremantle (0.9%) and then North Melbourne (0.8%).
Despite seven teams carrying the entire burden, a favourable result for either the Hawks or the Lions will be necessary for overall proft.
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 14c, while a worst case set would snip just under 12c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
