In what shapes as a challenging round for home team crowds, the TAB Bookmaker has installed away team favourites in eight of the nine games.

All but two of those favourites are expected to win by 10 points or more, and three of them by more than four goals, which has resulted in an all-game average expected victory margin of just over 21 points per game, which is both the second-highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 9 since 2018.

And, if the current market trends are anything to go by, Round 9 might be even less competitive than these numbers would imply, since the latest average expected margin is about half a point a game higher.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home is 89% contrarian this week, but joined only by Consult The Ladder in one game, and the MoS twins in another.

Despite the widespread agreement about which teams will win there are seven games where the Margin Predictors have combined to deliver double-digit forecast ranges, most notably in the West Coast v Melbourne game where RSMP_Simple’s 43-point forecast is book-ended by Bookie_3’s 73-point forecast.

Bookie_3, in fact, has the most extreme margin forecasts in seven games this week, while the MoS twins have them in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are five games with double-digit percentage point probability estimate ranges, with the largest being 19% points for the GWS v Carlton game, where Bookie_RE has one end, and MoSHBODS_Prob the other.

Altogether, Bookie_RE has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, MoSSBODS_Prob in six games, and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

The Head-to-Head Fund has awoken from its Round 8 and returned with six wagers this week, accompanied by a quintet of wagers from the Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Individually, the head-to-head bets range in size from 0.1% to 1.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets range in size from 0.3% to 2.9% of the original Line Fund.

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by just under 7c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by just over 5c.

GWS carries the most risk this week, with the difference between a GWS win and a GWS loss by 8 points or more representing a 4.6c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have Hawthorn representing a potential swing of 2.2c, Adelaide 2.1c, Gold Coast 1.4c, and North Melbourne, Essendon, and West Coast each representing possible swings of under 1c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.