Matter of Stats

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2022 - Round 26 : Overs/Unders

The MoS twins have quite different opinions this week, somewhat one with the other, but more so with both the bookmakers.

In terms of the likely highest- and lowest-scoring games and teams we have:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Geelong v Brisbane Lions

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Sydney v Collingwood

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Sydney v Collingwood

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Geelong v Brisbane Lions

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Geelong

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Sydney

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS: Collingwood

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions

WAGERS

MoSSBODS has found value in one unders bet this week, passing on an accompanying overs bet on account of the forecast.

The estimated overlay in the game with the wager is just under 11 points..

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) this week were shared around, with MoSHBODS taking them for Away Team Scores and Game Totals, the TAB taking them for Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet taking them for Game Margins.

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins and Home Team Scores, MoSHBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Totals, and the TAB still with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

The leads are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSSBODS 38 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS 9 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Away Team Scores: TAB 19 points ahead of Sportsbet (and 49 points ahead of MoSHBODS)

Game Totals: MoSHBODS 21 points ahead of MoSSBODS

MoSSBODS had one wager last week, an unders with the TAB, which was successful, and took its record with then to 30 and 17. It still has a 10 and 5 record with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 1 from 2 result against the TAB, moving it to 118 from 203 (58%) for the season, and also a 1 from 2 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 115 from 203 (56%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 2 from 2 result against the TAB, moving it to 120 from 203 (59%) for the season against them, and also a 2 from 2 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 114 from 203 (56%) for the season against them.