To me, it’s slightly amazing that we’ve got here, but we are now on the brink of the Finals series and, though they’re still a week away, I’ve chosen to lock-in the MoS models today.

Right now, the bookmakers have installed Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs as narrow 2-3 point favourites in their games, Richmond as moderate 1-goal favourites, and West Coast as relatively firm 2-goal favourites.

You can see what the MoS models think in the table at right, which shows some underdog support amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters in all games except Eagles v Pies.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, however, there’s only narrow contrarian support for Geelong amongst the RSMP twins, and stronger contrarian support for Brisbane Lions amongst the MoS twins.

Those Predictors have the Saints v Dogs game as a near coin-toss, despite all coming down on the side of the Dogs albeit, in the case of Bookie_9, by only a fraction of a point.

In the Eagles v Pies game, the forecast margins range from a 6-point to a 15-point Eagles win, with the MoS twins both at or near the smaller end of that range.

On the Leaderboard, MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg currently trail Bookie_9, who’s in top spot, by about 35 points. The absolute difference between MoSSBODS_Marg’s and Bookie_9’s forecast margins is about 41 points, and between MoSHBODS_Marg’s and Bookie_9’s forecast margins is about 22 points, so some favourable results for the MoS twins should see them climb up the ladder this week.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors the probability estimates span almost 30% points in the Lions v Tigers game, over 20% points in the Power v Cats game, 10% points in the Eagles v Pies game, and just 2% points in the Saints v Dogs game.

RECENT FINALS HISTORY

The table below summarises the results from the last 20 years of men’s AFL Finals based on the final home-and-away ladder positions of the teams.

The dominance in Week 1 of the teams finishing 1st and 2nd on the ladder is stark, but some of that has come from home ground advantage, which it could be argued might be less significant this year.

One other feature of this table is the dominance in semi-finals of teams with the double-chance who are, collectively, 32 and 8 across the period. Some of that dominance, too, has likely come from home ground advantage.

WAGERS

The MoS twins starkly different assessment of the Lions’ chances compared to the assessment of the bookmakers has, unsurprisingly, led to a pair of head-to-head and line bets. There’s also a fairly sizeable wager on Port Adelaide giving just 1.5 points start.

The Combined Portfolio maths of those three wagers works out as follows:

PORT ADELAIDE v GEELONG

Port Adelaide wins by 2 points or more: 2.1% x 0.9 x 30% = +0.6c
Otherwise: -2.1% x 30% = -0.6c

BRISBANE LIONS v RICHMOND

Brisbane Lions win: 1.5% x 1.35 x 30% + 4.4% x 0.9 x 60% = +3.0c
Brisbane Lions draw: 1.5% x (2.35/2-1) x 30% + 4.4% x 0.9 x 60% = +2.5c
Brisbane Lions lose by less than 8 points: -1.5% x 30% + 4.4% x 0.9 x 60% = +1.9c
Otherwise: -1.5% x 30% - 4.4% x 60% = -3.1c

Finally, here are the details behind the MoS twins’ forecasts