2020 - Round 2 : And We're Back

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There’s not a lot of data to estimate how well or poorly different teams play off the back of an 80-day break, but that hasn’t stopped all of the regular MoS models from trying it.

The bookmakers have done the same thing - though in their case it’s an occupational requirement - and have come up with an average expected margin for Round 2 games of just 13.5 points per game.

Four games are expected to be won by a single-digit margin, three more by less than three goals, one by just over three goals, and the final game by about five-and-a-half goals. Five of the games have home team favourites, four of them with expected margins of less than three goals, and we might be seeing smaller expected victory margins in those games due to lower bookmaker estimates of Home Ground Advantage.

And, on the topic of Home Ground Advantage, let’s turn to the MoS Tipsters.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Nine games provides nowhere near enough data for us to confidently assert how 16-minute quarters will affect team and total scoring so, for now, I’m sticking to the adjustment protocol I wrote up in this earlier blog, which essentially reduces all scores and margins by 20%.

We do now, of course, have the added complication of crowdless games which, as just alluded to, will probably reduce home ground advantage, but we have no data at all in the AFL on what the size of that reduction might be, in aggregate, or on a venue-by-venue or team-by-team basis. Implicitly, the adjustments I’m already making snip 20% off all Venue Performance Values and, for now, I’ll not be making any further adjustments, though I will, of course, review this as the season progresses.

So, what do we have?

Amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, only Consult The Ladder (in 6 games), Home Sweet Home (3), and MoSSBODS_Marg (1) have opted for other than the favourites in every game.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, the ranges of forecasts for every game are again quiet narrow, and nowhere larger than the 16 points for the Suns v Eagles game.

The mean expected margin across all games and all Predictors just 10.6 points per game, which is again this round even smaller than the bookmaker’s average.

MoSHBODS_Marg is the most extreme forecaster in eight games this week, Bookie_Handicap in four, and Bookie_3 in three.

Turning, finally, to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range of probability estimates in percentage point terms in the Swans v Dons and Saints v Dogs games where it’s 19% points, followed by the Suns v Eagles game where it’s 14%.

MoSSBODS_Prob have the round's most extreme estimates in seven contests, Bookie_RE in four, and MoSHBODS_Prob in three.

WAGERS

In a slightly busier second week of the season, Investors face nine wagers across six of the nine games putting just over 5% of the original Combined Funds in play. There are five head-to-head wagers with prices ranging from $1.85 to $6.50 and bets sizes ranging from 0.4% to 2.4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and four line wagers, three of them on underdogs, and ranging in size from 0.6% to 2.1% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Most risk this week (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) is borne by Gold Coast, the difference between successful and unsuccessful head-to-head and line wagers on them representing 3% of the original Combined Portfolio, as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

We also have Sydney carrying a 2.7% swing, St Kilda a 2.4% swing, and 0.7% to 1.1% swings carried by Collingwood, Geelong, and Carlton.

In total, just over 5% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk, and the maximum upside is just under 6%.

To finish, here are MoSS2020's and MoSH2020's opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.