2019 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders

This week, the MoS twins find themselves again broadly in synch with the bookmakers, and forecasting an average team score of just over 80 points per game.

(Tell me, again, how this year’s rule changes were rigorously tested and tailored to produce higher scores. You know, we statisticians aren’t that expensive to consult about what constitutes a representative sample and how important it is to consider the real-world second- and later-order effects of the nudges we implement.)

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The MoS twins have as their most-likely high-scoring game this week the Lions v Hawks game, an opinion shared partly by the TAB (who would add the Roos v Tigers clash), but not by EasyBet, who would prefer the Roos v Tigers game, alone, instead.

For low-scoring game we have the MoS twins plumping for the Saints v Power game, and the bookmakers plumping instead for the Giants v Suns game.

All four forecasters have the Giants on their list of most-likely high-scoring teams, but the MoS twins would rate the Cats as about equally-likely. There’s unanimity about the Suns as the most-likely low-scoring team.

The MoS twins have the Giants and Cats as the only teams likely to register a three-digit score, while the bookmakers have only the Giants as being likely to do this.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week were shared amongst MoSHBODS (Away Team scores and Totals) and the bookmakers (Home Team scores [Easybet] and Game Margin [shared]).

That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Home Team Score MAE and Total Score MAE, and MoSSBODS 1st on Game Margin MAE, but saw Easybet snatch 1st place from MoSSBODS on Away Team Score MAE.

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WAGERS

This week, MoSSBODS found three potential wagers, but Investors have taken up only two of those opportunities since rain is currently forecast for the Dons v Blues game where, otherwise, an overs bet seemed to be of value.

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In the two games where there are wagers, the overlays are only just large enough to warrant them. MoSSBODS and the bookmakers, clearly, are converging in their opinions.

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There were no bets last week, so MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB remained at 7 and 4, while that against Easybet remained at 18 and 11, leaving the overall win rate at 63% for the season.

Both twins did well in all nine games, however, picking the right side in 6 to 8 of the 9 contests, leaving MoSSBODS at 63% for the season against the TAB and 64% against Easybet, and MoSHBODS at 64% for the season against the TAB and 63% against Easybet.