2018 - Team Ratings After Round 23
/Richmond finish the home and away season atop both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, though with the smallest leads they've had for some time - just 0.3 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 1.7 Points on MoSHBODS - after a round in which they narrowly prevailed over the far-lower ranked Western Bulldogs, dropping ratings as a consequence. Melbourne, in contrast, registered a solid win over the similarly-rated GWS both in terms of points and scoring shots, which served to lift their rating on both Systems.
In total, the weekend's results moved six teams on MoSSBODS and five on MoSHBODS, but only the Western Bulldogs, up 2 spots into 13th on MoSHBODS, by more than a single spot om either System.
That left the two Systems with the same Top 2 of Richmond and Melbourne and agreeing, in total, about the ranking of eight teams, while differing in the ranking of only GWS by more than a single place. MoSSBODS has them 3rd and MoSHBODS 6th.
Across the entire season, Melbourne have been the big climbers on both Systems, up 8 Scoring Shots and 11 places on MoSSBODS, and up 24.3 Points and 11 places on MoSHBODS. Collingwood, West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne were the other teams making significant improvements.
The largest falls across the season were recorded by Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Sydney, St Kilda, and the Western Bulldogs.
We trace the rises and falls of all the teams in the path diagrams that appear below, firstly for the MoSSBODS System (remember that you can click on images to access larger versions of them).
Looking team-by-team, we find that:
- Adelaide's decline started at Round 4 and reached its nadir at Round 14 after which there was an increase in their offensive, but not defensive, rating.
- Brisbane Lions spent the entire season with negative offensive and defensive ratings, though were close to registering a positive offensive rating late in the season.
- Carlton mostly tracked in the wrong direction for the entire season, finishing only slightly above its season low and with one of the lowest end-of-season combined ratings of all time.
- Collingwood ended Round 1 with offensive and defensive ratings around zero before rapidly improving its defensive rating over the next four rounds. It then spent the remainder of the home and away season wandering around in the positive quadrant.
- Essendon fell away over the first seven rounds of the season before commencing a climb that saw it finish with its highest rating of the season after Round 23, comfortably in the positive quadrant.
- Fremantle moved in an encouraging, north-easterly direction through the early parts of the season but regressed heavily and consistently thereafter, finishing the season with significantly negative offensive and defensive ratings.
- Geelong had quite the ratings journey, initially climbing offensively but declining defensively before moving into the positive quadrant in Round 6. They then fell away offensively mid-season before recovering to end the season comfortably in the positive quadrant.
- Gold Coast started a journey towards the positive quadrant in Round 2, but then spent the remainder of the season deeply embedded in the negative quadrant. They did improve relative to their season lows towards the end of the season but still finished with historically low ratings.
- GWS started the season well into the positive quadrant before falling away, especially offensively, through the middle part of the season and then recovering to finish a little below their early season peaks.
- Hawthorn spent only Rounds 2 through 4 in the positive quadrant and finished the home and away season with a similarly negative offensive rating to that with which they started the season but also with an improved defensive rating.
- Melbourne's journey was almost entirely north-easterly (the only major detour spanning Round 4 to Round 7), starting with the rating of an average team (viz 0 on both dimensions) and ending with significantly positive offensive and defensive ratings.
- North Melbourne took a more scenic route to the positive quadrant, and spent much of the season with a negative offensive rating. It visited the positive quadrant for the first time around mid-season before falling back offensively, only to return in Round 23 to finish just inside the quadrant.
- Port Adelaide started and spent the first few rounds in the positive quadrant, but soon declined offensively and spent the remainder of the season with a positive defensive and negative offensive rating. Their final rating was close to their lowest offensively.
- Richmond started well into the positive quadrant only to slip back a little but remain inside that quadrant over the first few rounds before moving solidly north-east immediately thereafter. Their rating slipped a little again in the latter part of the season, finishing roughly where it was after Round 4.
- St Kilda started the season just inside the positive quadrant but fell away almost immediately into the negative quadrant where it remained for the rest of the season, finishing with a slightly negative offensive rating and a more substantially negative defensive rating.
- Sydney spent most of the early part of the season in the positive quadrant though generally moving in a south-westerly direction. It registered a non-trivially negative offensive rating for the first time around Round 14, which is retained to the end of the season. It ended the home and away season with a slightly positive defensive rating, but far lower that the one it started with.
- West Coast lifted its offensive and defensive ratings dramatically through the first 10 rounds of the season before falling back, mostly offensively, to end the season with a strong defensive rating but with an only slightly above-average offensive rating.
- Western Bulldogs started in the negative quadrant and then climbed briefly into positive offensive territory until the end of Round 4 after which it fell back into the negative quadrant where it remained for the rest of the season, excepting a one week sojourn into positive defensive territory at the end of Round 14. It finished with a slightly negative defensive rating and a more profoundly negative offensive rating.
The team paths for MoSHBODS Ratings appear below, and provide a remarkably similar narrative for each team.
Looking next at the component ratings, we see that:
- MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 on offence of Melbourne, Richmond, and then Adelaide, with GWS slipping back to 5th this week.
- MoSHBODS still has Melbourne and Richmond in 1st and 2nd on offence too, but now has Essendon, up two places, in 3rd, supplanting Collingwood.
- MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond, Collingwood, and then West Coast, having relegated Port Adelaide to 5th.
- MoSHBODS has a Top 3 on defence of Richmond (unchanged), West Coast (up 2 spots), and then Collingwood (down 1 spot), with Port Adelaide falling from 3rd to 7th this week.
On offence, Melbourne is now rated 1.7 Scoring Shots better than Richmond by MoSSBODS, and 5.9 points better than Richmond by MoSHBODS.
On defence, Richmond is rated 1.7 Scoring Shots better than Collingwood by MoSSBODS, and 4.0 points better than West Coast by MoSHBODS.
Across all 18 teams, we now have:
- Melbourne ranked 4th by MoSSBODS on defence, and 8th by MoSHBODS
- Geelong ranked 8th by MoSSBODS on defence, and 4th by MoSHBODS
No other team is ranked more than two places differently on either offence or defence by the two Systems.
The latest version of the animated GIF of MoSSBODS ratings appears below, and shows movements up or down by 0.5 Scoring Shots or more on either offence or defence only for:
- Western Bulldogs +0.8 on offence
- North Melbourne +0.5 on offence
- Collingwood -0.5 on offence
- Fremantle +0.5 on defence
- Richmond -0.8 on defence
- St Kilda -0.5 on defence
On Combined Rating, the big movers were:
- Western Bulldogs +1.2 / Richmond -1.2
- Fremantle +0.8 / Collingwood -0.8
- West Coast +0.6 / Brisbane Lions -0.6
- North Melbourne +0.5 / St Kilda -0.5
The chart below shows the rating of all 18 teams from 2018 relative to other teams from previous seasons after home and away Round 23. Only teams that played in seasons with home and away portions extending to 23 rounds or more are included.
Richmond's and Melbourne's clear superiority is evident in this chart as is Sydney's and, to a lesser extent, Hawthorn's conspicuously low ratings in an historical context for teams that are playing in Finals.
As things stand now:
- eight teams have a positive offensive and a positive defensive rating (up 1 from last week)
- one has a positive offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
- three have a negative offensive and a positive defensive rating (down 1 from last week)
- six have a negative offensive and a negative defensive rating (unchanged from last week)
In total, nine teams now have a positive offensive rating while 11 have a positive defensive rating.
ChiPS re-ranked half the teams this week, including Melbourne up 2 spots into 2nd, Hawthorn up 3 spots into 5th, and Sydney and GWS both down 2 spots into 7th and 8th respectively.
MARS moved 10 teams, but only Hawthorn, up 2 spots into 6th, and Port Adelaide, down 2 spots into 11th, by more than a single spot.
Both Systems now agree that the Top 3 teams are Richmond, Melbourne, and Geelong.
More broadly, the two Systems agree about the ranking of nine teams, and differ by more than two places only in their ranking of Adelaide, which ChiPS ranks 12th and MARS 9th.
Looking across the team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder, we find that:
- Geelong, Essendon, and Melbourne sit significantly lower on the competition ladder than their ranking on at least two of the Rating Systems.
- West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn sit significantly higher on the competition ladder than their ranking on at least two of the Rating Systems.
- Sydney (7th to 12th) is ranked five places differently across the Rating Systems.
- GWS (4th to 8th) is ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
- Essendon (6th to 10th) is also ranked four places differently across the Rating Systems.
- No other team is ranked more than three places differently across the Rating Systems.
