Matter of Stats

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2018 - Round 19 Results - MoSSBODS Climbs

The RSMP twins dropped a tip further back this weekend, leaving Bookie Knows Best now four tips clear of them, and ENS_Linear now six tips clear on 116.5 from 162 (72%).

There were more dramatic moves amongst the Margin Predictors as MoSSBODS_Marg produced another best-in-field mean absolute error (MAE) catapulting it to 3rd on the Leaderboard and just 40 points behind the leader, Bookie_Hcap, and less than 10 points behind Bookie_3 in 2nd. MoSSBODS_Marg now also has a profitable season-long line betting record, having been on the right side of the margin in about 55% of contests.

In general, it was a fairly easy week for margin prediction, with C_Marg the only Predictor failing to record a sub-30 MAE for the round.

C_Prob aside, Probability Scores for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors were high this week, best for MoSHBODS_Prob but second-best for MoSSBODS_Prob, which was enough to leave it atop the Leaderboard and ahead of Bookie_OE and Bookie_RE.

WAGERS

Another poor week of overs/unders wagering - including two bets that were lost by less than a goal - put a cap on the round's profits that had otherwise been generated by the Head-to-Head and Line Funds.

The Head-to-Head profit included a substantial collect on the Dees, along with two more collects from two bets, and came in at almost 11c for the week. The Line Fund made just under 1c despite registering a 3 from 4 performance, hurt by the failure of the Eagles to cover against the Roos.

In aggregate, the Combined Portfolio rose by 2.2c to finish down by 2.7c on the season from a -1.7% ROI on about a 1.55 turn.