2017 - Round 18 Results - Can You Hear the MoS Twins Sing?
/Tonight, I sat back and tried to be a little objective about the season so far and how, in particular, the MoS twins have fared, bereft as they are of bookmaker or player information.
In head-to-head tipping, we have MoSSBODS now 7 tips clear of the TAB bookmaker, while in margin prediction MoSHBODS is almost 10-goals ahead of Bookie_Hcap. And, lastly, in head-to-head probability estimation, MoSHBODS_Prob sits just a few bold but correct probability calls behind Bookie_OE.
If you'd told me at the start of the season that someone was positing this as the position at the end of Round 18, I'd have said to you ...
Anyway, to the results, which reveal a very wide range of performances in head-to-head tipping, topped by an 8 from 9 for the cellar-dwelling Home Sweet Home and a pair of 7s by the MoS twins, and tailed by 4s for Consult The Ladder, ENS_Linear, and Bookie Knows Best.
The RSMP twins managed only 5 from 9, which has allowed MoSSBODS_Marg to take top spot by 2 clear tips, now on 95 from 153 (62%).
MoS' Margin Predictors were quite accurate this week, producing an all-Predictor average mean absolute error (MAE) of 24.4 points per game, headed by sub-24 MAEs from MoSSBODS_Marg, Bookie_9, and ENS_Linear.
That left the Top 4 on the Leaderboard unchanged as MoSHBODS_Marg, RSMP_Weighted, RSMP_Simple, and MoSSBODS_Marg.
Just five of the Margin Predictors now have season-long profitable line betting records: RSMP_Weighted, RSMP_Simple, MoSSBODS_Marg, ENS_Linear, and Bookie_LPSO.
With only four favourites winning this week, the log probability scores of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors were a little lower than they were last week, but all of them nonetheless managed to record positive scores. Best was MoSSBODS_Prob's, ahead of MoSHBODS_Prob's. Worst was C_Prob's.
That left Bookie_OE atop the Leaderboard, with MoSHBODS_Prob just a little behind and Bookie_RE in 3rd.
WAGERS
As a good mate of mine (and fellow Investor) has mentioned to me, what's differentiated the Overall Fund performances this year has been the absence of huge wins and, in particular, huge losses. The last 10 or so rounds have been excellent examples of this.
This week, the Overall Portfolio enjoyed a 2.9c gain on the back of a 3.1c gain by the Head-to-Head Fund, a 6.4c gain by the Line Fund, and an 0.5c loss by the Overs/Unders Fund.
Across the season so far, the Head-to-Head Fund now finds itself up by almost 41%, the Line Fund up by just over 33%, and the Overs/Unders Fund up by just over 20%.
The week's profit leaves the Overall Portfolio up by 29.6% on the season (a 17.7% ROI on a 1.67 turn).
You've just gotta be happy with that ...
