2017 - Round 19 : Overs/Unders Update I

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For reasons that are apparent only to the TAB Bookmakers (and, I'll be honest, I'm guessing probably not even to the professional market-framers amongst them) we're still waiting for an Overs/Unders market to be made available for the Suns v Tigers game this week. There's no apparent threat of rain, there are markets in many of the other major bookmakers, and yet they're coy about their reasons for failing to frame a market.

I'd be very sympathetic if they just said, "oops, we forgot", but all they're offering on Twitter is that "a market will be available tomorrow afternoon".  That, without explanation, frankly isn't good enough.

(Actually, I've just been informed that "The betting managers are still formulating their markets". Apparently they need at least 8 more hours than their competitors to achieve that outcome.

Oh, hang on a minute, I've just been further informed after relaying the fact that their competitors have had a market up for some time that 'we welcome all feedback and have forwarded it onto the relevant department'. I really do wish I was making this up.)

I've spent over 10 years now defending the TAB, but tonight I feel very much let down by them. In truth I doubt I'll be wagering in this particular market with them, whatever they frame, but their responses have been disappointing.

Anyway, with what we do have, I can tell you that:

  • GWS, Port Adelaide, Adelaide and West Coast are expected to score over 100 points by all four forecasters
  • Melbourne is expected to score over 100 points by MoSSBODS, the TAB and Centrebet
  • Geelong is expected to score over 100 points by the TAB and Centrebet

All four forecasters agree that the low-scoring team for the round will be Fremantle, scoring approximately 63 points.

As well, they all agree that the West Coast v Brisbane Lions game will be the round's high-scoring game, with totals of around 196 to 197 points. As low scorer, the MoS twins have Carlton v Geelong with around 160 points, while the TAB and Centrebet have Port Adelaide v St Klda with between 156 and 160 points.

WAGERS

For now, absent the coy TAB bookmakers, we have just two wagers in over/under market, one of each variety.

The overlays in both games where Investors have wagers are very healthy - about 20 or more points in both cases, the over in the Port Adelaide v St Kilda game where the forecast is a slightly ominous "Showers developing. Windy.".

Last week saw MoSSBODS and the TAB do best in terms of mean absolute error (MAE), with MoSSBODS recording the lowest MAE for Margin (23.3 pts) and Away team scores (18.7 pts), and the TAB recording the lowest MAE for Home team scores (14.3 pts) and Totals (21.3 pts).

That left MoSHBODS still with the best season-long performance on game Margin (28.8) and Away team scores (17.3), Centrebet still 1st on Home team scores (18.0), and the TAB still 1st on Totals (21.2).

Thiis last week, MoSSBODS racked up only 4 from 9 performances against both the TAB and Centrebet to move to an 83 from 153 (54%) season-long records against the TAB and an 81 from 153 (53%) record against Centrebet Totals. MoSHBODS recorded 5 from 9 performances against the TAB and Centrebet, and now has an 82 from 153 (54%) record against the TAB, and an 83 from 153 (54%) record against Centrebet.