2016 - Round 26 (Finals Week 2) Results - Not Entirely Surprising

/

Clearly, not an ideal weekend for Investors as all four wagers were trousered by the Bookmaker, but it'd be a stone-cold heart that didn't rejoice at least a little at the results, especially in the Dogs' progress to a Grand Final after so, so long.

Anyway, firstly to matters fiscal, where I am compelled by precedent and propriety to report that the Head-to-Head Fund shed 5% on the weekend and the Line Fund 0.9%, to leave the Overall Portfolio down by 2.3% across the two days but still up by 12.7% on the season.

That +12.7% result has come from a +6.5% ROI and a turn of 1.95.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The two underdog victories wreaked havoc on the accuracy of MoS' Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with CTL the only Tipster to register anything other than a zero.

Its 1 from 2 was largely inconsequential though and we still have MoSSBODS_Marg atop the Leaderboard, now on 151 from 206 (73%). MoSSBODS_Marg is two tips clear and, as I've already indicated, assured of victory.

Ultimate victory amongst the Margin Predictors is far less assured, however, RSMP_Simple recording the round's best mean absolute error (MAE) of 31.0 points per game this week to leave it just over 7 points behind the leader, Bookie_LPSO. Only those two would seem to have realistic hopes of victory.

Six Margin Predictors still have profitable line betting records, including Bookie_LPSO, the two RSMP Predictors, ENS_Greedy, C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg. This season is proving, once again, that MAE superiority isn't a necessary condition for line betting success.

Two Margin Predictors altered their rankings this week, ENS_Greedy nudging ahead of ENS_Linear. None of the other Predictors moved at all.

For the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors it was a poor week, all of them registering largish negative probability scores after the two upset victories. C_Prob's performance was worst and Bookie_OE's best, but none of the results was sufficient to alter the rankings on the Leaderboard. At this stage, Bookie_LPSO is on track to win both the Margin and Head-to-Head Probability Predictor awards.