2016 Round 22 : Overs/Unders Update

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Two unders and two overs wagers this week, a pair of them on games where Investors had neither head-to-head nor line bets, mean that two-thirds of the games now have financial consequences.

These four new wagers take the total amount at risk to 6.5% of the original Overall Portfolio, a little below what projections based on the season-to-date would predict. A typical game this season has risked 0.95% of the original Overall Portfolio, so we'd expect about 8.6% to be at risk in a typical 9-game round.

MoSSBODS COMPARISON TO THE TAB

MoSSBODS' average projected total score across the nine games this week is only 4 points lower than the TAB's, much of that difference coming in the two games where unders wagers have been made.

In the Blues v Dees game MoSSBODS has the home team scoring 6 points fewer than does the TAB, and the away team scoring 11 points fewer, while for Sunday's Dons v Dogs game the differences are about 6 points and 13 points respectively. 

The Dees and Dogs aside, MoSSBODS' projected team scores are no more than 8 points different in absolute terms than the TABs' projections for any single team.

MoSSBODS and the TAB also agree about the three games likely to produce the highest aggregate scores this week (Lions v Cats, Port v Crows, and Pies v Suns), but differ about which will be the lowest-scoring. MoSSBODS has the Dons v Dogs, and Blues v Dees games as its choices for the low-score matchups of the round, each generating only just over 150 points, while the TAB has the Roos v Swans game as its choice, producing 167.5 points.

The TAB out-predicted MoSSBODS across the board last weekend, producing lower mean absolute errors (MAEs) for Home team, Away team, and aggregate scores, and for game margins.

Including that result, the latest performance data is as follows:

Home Team Scores

  • MoSSBODS: 19.3 MAE; +5 Average Error (Actual - Predicted)
  • TAB: 17.4 MAE; +1 Average Error

Away Team Scores

  • MoSSBODS: 20.5 MAE; +1 Average Error
  • TAB: 20.6 MAE; -4 Average Error

Aggregate Scores

  • MoSSBODS: 27.0 MAE; +6 Average Error
  • TAB: 25.3 MAE; -3 Average Error

Game Margins

  • MoSSBODS: 29.8 MAE; +4 Average Error
  • TAB: 29.0 MAE; +5 Average Error