2015 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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West Coast's unexpected draw with the Gold Coast on Saturday stopped it from making more significant inroads into the Hawks' lead on ChiPS Team Ratings this weekend. In the end, the Hawks' Friday night loss to the Tigers cost it 3.7 Rating Points (RPs) and the Eagles' draw cost it 2.6 RPs of its own, leaving the Eagles still over 16 RPs adrift in second. 

Further down the table though was where the ChiPS Team Ranking turbulence was being most widely experienced, 10 teams vacating ladder spots, three moving by more than a single rung. Adelaide fell furthest, dropping three places into 11th after surrendering just over 2 RPs to Sydney, while the Dogs and Port climbed most, both rising two places into 8th and 9th positions, respectively.

Eight teams remain Rated over 1,000, six over 1,010, and three over 1,020. Only three are Rated below 980.

(The full version of this table is, again this week, provided at the end of the blog.)

MARS was also a fairly active re-Ranker this week, switching the positions of eight teams, five of them by two places or more. Melbourne rose three spots into 14th, Geelong two spots into 8th, while the Pies, Crows and Saints all fell two places into 9th, 11th and 16th respectively. I don't recall there being in earlier years so much movement in team Rankings so late in the season.

Even after all that activity by ChiPS and MARS however, only one team has Rankings that differ by more than two places across the two Systems: St Kilda, which is Ranked 13th by ChiPS and 16th by MARS.

The correlation between ChiPS' and MARS Team Rankings now stands at +0.953, and between ChiPS and MARS Team Ratings at +0.958.

COLLEY, MASSEY AND ODM

Colley this week re-Ranked nine teams, though only Melbourne by more than a single spot, they being elevated by Colley to 13th from 15th. Massey also re-Ranked nine teams, but for it four were worthy of multiple spot movements: Adelaide (down to 11th from 8th), Collingwood (down to 7th from 5th), Melbourne (up to 13th from 15th), and Port Adelaide (up to 8th from 10th).

ODM re-Ranked only seven teams, three by more than a spot: Adelaide, from 9th to 11th; Collingwood, from 5th to 7th; and Port Adelaide, from 11th to 9th.

That left ChiPS and Colley with the least correlated Team Rankings (+0.897), and Massey and ODM with the most correlated (+0.996), the two differing only in their opinions about Melbourne and St Kilda for 13th and 14th, and the Roos and Port for 8th and 9th.

Colley remains most correlated with competition ladder positions (+0.988), while ChiPS and MARS are both equally least correlated (+0.907).

Only three teams now have Rankings across the five Systems that span more than four positions:

  • Collingwood, Ranked 7th by ChiPS, Massey and ODM, and 12th by Colley
  • The Kangaroos, Ranked 4th by ChiPS and 9th by Massey
  • The Western Bulldogs, Ranked 6th by Colley, Massey and ODM, and 10th by MARS

ODM DEFENSIVE AND OFFENSIVE COMPONENTS

There was just a slight re-ordering of ODM's Top 5 Defensive teams this week:

  1. Fremantle (no change)
  2. Hawthorn (up 1 place)
  3. West Coast (down 1 place)
  4. Sydney (no change)
  5. Richmond (no change)

Outside the Top 5, the Western Bulldogs now lie 6th and Collingwood 7th, a reversal of their ordering at the end of Round 17.

ODM's Top 5 Offensive teams this week includes a new entrant:

  1. Hawthron (no change)
  2. West Coast (no change)
  3. Adelaide (no change)
  4. Kangaroos (no change)
  5. Port Adelaide (up 1 place)

Collingwood now sit one place out of the Top 5, in sixth, while the Western Bulldogs remain in 7th.

A comparison of ODM with MoSSBOD Ratings continues to be best characterised by the word 'similar' rather than 'disparate', especially in terms of Team Combined Rankings. That said, there are a handful of quite large differences in component Rankings (ie of five Ranking spots or more):

  • ODM Ranks Richmond 11th on Offence, MoSSBOD Ranks them 3rd
  • ODM Ranks Port Adelaide 5th on Offence, MoSSBOD Ranks them 12th
  • ODM Ranks the Kangaroos 12th on Defence, MoSSBOD Ranks them 7th

It's interesting to note that MoSSBOD has identified six teams as significantly superior to the rest in terms of Defensive abilities, and that these are the teams currently in positions 1 through 6 on the competition ladder: Fremantle, Hawthorn, West Coast, Sydney, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs. Only two teams are Rated by MoSSBOD as standouts on Offence however, Hawthorn and West Coast, and these are the teams in positions 2 and 3 on the competition ladder.

PREDICTIVE ACCURACY

Not much to write about this week in terms of the Systems' simple predictive accuracy, with all Systems correctly identifying the same number of winners, except the Offensive Component of ODM, which identified one fewer than all other Systems.

MARS, therefore now leads:

  • ChiPS by 1 tip
  • The Offensive Component of ODM by 8 tips
  • ODM by 11 tips
  • Massey by 12 tip
  • The Defensive Component of ODM by 17 tips
  • Colley by 19 tips

FULL CHIPS AND MARS TABLE

(Please click on this image for a larger version of it.)