2015 - Team Ratings After Round 5
/Sydney's loss to the Dogs this past round saw it shed Rating Points (RPs) on both ChiPS and MARS, relegating it to 4th place on ChiPS and 3rd on MARS. Fremantle and West Coast both moved up a single ladder position on both Ranking Systems, filling 2nd and 3rd places respectively on ChiPS, and 2nd and 4th on MARS. Hawthorn remains in 1st position under both Systems, its lead over Fremantle almost 8 RPs on ChiPS and over 10 RPs on MARS.
Collingwood was the week's big climber on ChiPS, up three places into 5th after snaring 7 RPs from their dominant win over Carlton. The Western Bulldogs and Geelong were the other teams to climb multiple places.
Heading in the other direction on ChiPS were Sydney, Richmond, Essendon and GWS, all falling two places.
In total, six teams fell and six rose on ChiPS, while four rose and eight fell on MARS, those moves serving to generally increase the level of agreement between the two Systems' Rankings. Only two teams now have Rankings under the two Systems that differ by more than two places:
- Adelaide, 11th on ChiPS and 7th on MARS
- Gold Coast, 16th on ChiPS and 13th on MARS
The correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings currently stands at +0.962.
Colley, Massey and ODM
As foreshadowed last week, the level of agreement between the various Rating Systems tracked here on MatterOfStats has increased after Round 5.
The rank correlations between all possible pairs of Systems now range from a low of +0.72 between MARS and Colley, to a high of +0.99 between Massey and ODM. (That between ChiPS and MARS, by the way, is +0.95.)
Significant differences - those where the highest and lowest Rankings differ by 5 or more places - still remain, however, for:
- Adelaide, with a high Ranking of 5th by Colley, and a low Ranking of 11th by ChiPS
- GWS, 9th by ODM, 15th by MARS
- Hawthorn, 1st by ChiPS and MARS, 6th by Colley
- The Kangaroos, 8th by MARS, 13th by Colley
- Melbourne, 11th by Colley, 16th by MARS
- Richmond, 7th by ChiPS, 14th by Colley
- West Coast, 3rd by ChiPS and ODM, 8th by Colley
- The Western Bulldogs, 2nd by Colley, 12th by MARS
Colley appears in the list above for seven different teams, which is more appearances than for any other System. MARS appears for five teams, ChiPS for four, ODM for one only, and Massey for none at all.
ODM Offensive and Defensive Rankings
The ODM System has the following teams as its Top 5 in terms of Defensive performances:
- Fremantle
- Sydney
- Collingwood
- Hawthorn
- West Coast
Three of those teams also appear in its Top 5 in terms of Offensive performances:
- Hawthorn
- Fremantle
- West Coast
- Western Bulldogs
- Port Adelaide
Six teams remain with ODM Defensive Rankings that differ from their ODM Offensive Rankings by five places or more:
- Carlton, Ranked 16th on Defence and 11th on Offence
- The Kangaroos (14th and 8th)
- Collingwood (3rd and 10th)
- Essendon (7th and 16th)
- Melbourne (11th and 17th)
- Sydney (2nd and 7th)
The rank correlation between ODM Defensive Rankings and competition ladder position is currently +0.94, while that between ODM Offensive Rankings and competition ladder position is only +0.73, which hints that a good defence might have been more important than a good offence so far this season (a finding that is consistent with the analysis accompanying this week's Team Dashboard that revealed the correlation between ranking on Scoring Shot Concession and ladder position was greater than the correlation between ranking on Scoring Shot Production and ladder position).
SIMPLE TIPPING ACCURACY
MARS remains the System with the greatest simple tipping accuracy (ie where we tip the team with the higher Rating regardless of game venue), though it is still only a single tip ahead of ChiPS.
Massey lies in 3rd, five tips further back, with ODM and the Offensive Component of ODM in joint 4th, another tip behind. Next comes the Defensive Component of ODM, which is eight tips adrift of MARS, and last is Colley, two tips further back.
