2014 - Round 22 Results : The Margin Fund Delivers (For Once)
/Talk of its demise sparked the Margin Fund into a rare show of form this week, its 3 from 12 correct bucket selections - which could easily have been 4 but for a couple of late Saints goals - adding over 10c to its price. It still sits about 65c in the red, however, so its resurrection is far from complete.
As nice as the Margin Fund's expectedly positive contribution was, from a Portfolio viewpoint the main story for Investors was the 2 from 2 Head-to-Head Fund result, which added 7c to that Fund's price, and the 4 from 5 Line Fund result, which added just a little less to its price. Combined, the three increases grew the Portfolio price by about 7.5c, more than doubling the season's profit, which now stands at just over 15c.
This week's profit, which was twice the size of last week's, was the second highest increase for any single round this year, behind only the 9.0c added to the Portfolio in Round 14.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
With all nine favourites taking the competition points this week and relatively low levels of Head-to-Head Tipster disagreement for most games, Tipster performances were strong, averaging 8.04 from 9 as 17 Tipsters recorded perfect scores. That perfection extended to all of the Tipsters, except Combo_NN_1, at the top of the Leaderboard, with the result that Bookie_9 still heads that list, three tips ahead of the field.
Margin prediction also proved relatively easy, the all-Predictor average Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE) coming in at just 25.2 points per game. Best was Bookie_3's 22.2 points per game, ahead of Bookie_LPSO's 23.2 points per game, which was good enough to keep Bookie_LPSO in 2nd place, in fact extending its lead over Bookie_9.
An interesting aspect of Bookie_LPSO's performance this season is that it's been the Predictor nearest the actual game margin 10 times without once being the Predictor furthest away.
C_Marg continued its late-season charge this week, a 24.1 MAPE lifting it into third-last.
A slew of Predictors still have season-long profitable Line betting records, seven of them having chosen the right team in 58% of contests or more. That's an extraordinary record relative to chance so late in the season.
Probability scores for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors were bolstered by the favourites' success this week, every Predictor recording its best single-round score for the season. The absolute best score was recorded by WinPred whose performance was narrowly superior to C_Prob's.
The Line Fund algorithm also performed well, finishing with a positive probability score for the second week in a row.
SuperMargin Performances
Six of the Margin Predictors selected the correct bucket in three contests this week, and 10 selected the correct bucket in two. Only Win_7 and Combo_7 could manage the feat in just a single game. No Predictor tipped the wrong bucket in every game.
Those impressive performances have left us with eight Predictors showing positive returns for the season to SuperMargin wagering on forecasted home team wins or draws.
