2013 : MARS, Massey, Colley and ODM Ratings After Round 20

Geelong and Sydney traded places on the MARS Rating ladder this week, as did the Tigers and the Roos, and the Blues and the Crows, each swap representing a change of just a single ladder position. The round's only other movements were both more significant, each a two-position move, with West Coast climbing up into 8th, and Essendon sliding down into 11th.

These moves have served to further scramble the MARS ordering of teams ranked 6th through 11th, and now mean that only two of those teams, Richmond in 6th and Carlton in 9th, have the same competition ladder position as they have MARS Ranking.

Reviewing the Rating changes over the previous five rounds we find that only three teams have moved, net, by more than a single ladder position. Essendon has fallen five places during that period, shedding over 14 Ratings Points (RPs) to do so, while the Roos have fallen two places despite having gained just over 1 RP in that time. Collingwood are the only other team to move multiple places, climbing three spots on the back of a 9 RP gain, the largest gain of any team over that period.

Taking an even longer perspective - across the entire season - we find that Geelong have gained most RPs this year, up almost 22 RPs since before Round 1, slightly more than Fremantle, who've gained just over 20 RPs, and Hawthorn, who've gained just over 19 RPs. Other teams to gain have been Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, the Roos, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Sydney.

Melbourne have been the team shedding most RPs. They're down by almost 45 RPs since the season's first centre-bounce, while other notable donors have been St Kilda (down 34 RPs) and GWS (down about 32 RPs). Adelaide, Brisbane, Gold Coast, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs have been the other teams leaking RPs across the season taken as a whole.

Turning our attention back to the immediate present we see little change in the high levels of agreement across the four Rating Systems about the rankings of the 18 teams. 

A look at the team rankings of the ODM Offensive and Defensive components reveals a similar consistency of outlook relative to last week, with only some small re-rankings in terms of the Dons' offensive capabilities (now rated lower), the Cats' defensive abilities (now rated lower), and the Tigers' defensive abilities (now rated higher).

Finally, with the Rating Systems now generally in agreement about the ranking of each team, it's hard for any of them to out-tip another. Consequently we see no movement in the Rating Systems' predictive accuracy relative to MARS this week. MARS still leads all of the other Rating Systems, therefore, by at least three correct predictions.