2013 : MARS, Massey, Colley and ODM Ratings After Round 16

The results from Round 16, as predictable as they were, led to changes in the MARS Rankings of only five teams this week, three of them by just a single place.

Collingwood, however, leapt three spots on the back of a 27-point win over the Crows, while the Roos fell two places after a surprise loss to the Lions. Richmond, Carlton and West Coast were the only other teams to ascend or descend, and they by just a single spot.

That left the Top 4 and the Bottom 8 places unchanged, and left us with 11 teams Rated over 1,000, eight of them Rated over 1,012. The Ratings Point (RP) gap between 4th and 15th stretched a little further this week, and now stands at a season-record 51.4 RPs, while the gap between 4th and 8th now stands at 9.9 RPs, the second-highest it's been this season.

Looking just at the last five rounds, all of the teams Rated in the top eight have accumulated points, a characteristic that's true of just two teams Rated in the bottom 10: Port Adelaide and the Lions.

The Roos and Port Adelaide remain as the only teams whose competition ladder position differs from their MARS Ranking by more than three places. The Roos are Ranked 7th by MARS but sit 11th on the ladder, while Port are Ranked 12th by MARS but sit 8th on the ladder. As well, five teams now find themselves Rated below 980 on MARS.

As has been the case now for some time, we see broad agreement with MARS' opinions from most of the other Rating Systems for most of the teams.

Brisbane's ranking has become a little more contentious this week, with Colley now ranking them significantly more highly than does the other Systems. Colley also differs with respect to the ranking of Port Adelaide, the Roos, the Saints and the Swans. For every other team, all four Systems have broadly the same ranking.

When we look at the separate Offensive and Defensive rankings of the ODM system, we find that the most recent results have led to a(n):

• Reduction in the assessment of the Dons', the Roos' and Port's Defensive capabilities
• Confirmation of Freo's significantly superior Defensive assessment compared to its Offensive assessment
• Improvement in the assessment of the Cats' Defensive capabilities 

For the most part, the results of Round 16 reinforced the existing trends in team MARS Ratings, as you can see from the chart below. 

(GWS, despite a massive loss to the Swans this week, still have some work to do to wrest the "worst ever team" mantle from Fitzroy. Whilst their current Rating of 914.7 as shown here is impressively low, their "official" historical Rating, which is based on granting them an initial Rating of 1,000 rather than the 900 that was used to produce the Ratings shown here, is 926.8. That leaves them still over 13 RPs clear of Fitzroy's 1996 nadir.)

Lastly, here's the chart of the Ratings Systems' predictive accuracy, which shows the same ranking of the Systems as we've seen for a while now: