2012 MARS, Colley and Massey Ratings After Round 7

On the basis of last week's results, the MARS System changed its opinion about the ranking of every one of the top 11 teams, as well as about two other teams further down the ladder.

Contributing heavily to the turmoil was the magnitude of the Rating Point swaps in many Round 7 games. The average of 3.3 RPs per game was easily the highest for any Round so far this season.

Teams rising on the flood were Collingwood, gaining 3.7 RPs to jump 3 places, along with Hawthorn (+3.8 RPs) and Adelaide (+5.5 RPs) each jumping 2 places. Geelong were the team crashing furthest, plummeting 3 places in giving up those 5.5 RPs to Adelaide, while the Swans were the only other team to move by more than 1 spot, dropping 2 places as a result of surrendering 3.3 RPs to Richmond.

Across the most recent 5 rounds it's been the Dons who've gained most. They're up over 16 RPs to 1,011.4, which Ranks them 7th.

Richmond have been another big gainer, accumulating 11.5 RPs to leave them at 996.3 and in 12th spot. Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney, GWS and St Kilda are the only other teams to have gained RPs across these same 5 rounds.

Four teams have donated the majority of these RPs: Melbourne (almost 12), the Gold Coast (almost 11), Brisbane (over 8), and Port Adelaide (just under 8). Collectively these teams now take up four of the bottom five places on MARS Rankings.

The Roos and the Cats have been more modest donors during this period, proferring only about 3 and 5 RPs respectively, most - in the Cats' case, all - of them in Round 7.

Collingwood, Carlton, the Dogs and the Eagles have been the only other teams to lose RPs across these five rounds. So modest have been the losses for these teams, however, that three of them remain ranked in the top 5 by the MARS System.

MARS' re-ranking of 13 teams on the basis of Round 7 results was almost matched by Colley's re-ranking of 10 teams and more than matched by Massey's re-ranking of 14 teams. Because of all this turbulence, no team except GWS has the same ranking this week on all three Ratings System as it had at the end of Round 6.

Further, only one team, the Gold Coast, is currently ranked identically by all three Systems. The Lions, ranked 14th by Colley and MARS, and 15th by Massey; and the Dogs, ranked 13th by Colley and MARS, and 14th by Massey, are the only other teams to come close.

For four teams the difference between the highest and lowest of the three Systems' rankings is 6 places or more. Most dramatic is the situation for Geelong, ranked 4th by MARS and 12th on Massey. The Hawks have the next greatest differential, ranked 1st on MARS and 8th on Colley.

The other teams with the six-place differences are Essendon (1st on Colley and 7th on MARS), and Adelaide (3rd on Colley and 9th on MARS).

Right now it seems that MARS might be too mired in teams' past glories, while Colley and Massey are too captivated by early-season form for any of the Systems to give a reliable read.