2011 Round 20 Results: Reminders of Profit Past and Promises of Profit to Come
/At least this week I can claim that Investor Portfolios were in profit at the end of a game.
That's the status Portfolios had after the Hawks had covered the spread against Port - though the term "covered" barely does justice to the ease with which the Hawks made redundant the 80.5 point start they were forced to provide - and the status that they still had even after Fremantle had failed to topple the Blues. It was the Dogs' loss to the Demons by more than 3 points that eventually pushed Portfolios back into the red, if only barely.
The Dogs' failure to win on line betting snapped a six-round streak of profitability from the Line Fund and meant that Portfolios went backwards for the second time in three weeks. They're now priced at 97.5c.
Though it wasn't a great week for home teams, it was for favourites, with seven of eight of them grabbing the competition points, Sydney being the odd team out with their 43-point loss to the Tigers. Head-to-head tipsters, who as a group were largely behind the favourites, prospered, averaging 6.7 from 8 for the round, the 4th-highest success rate for the season to date.
While none of the Head-to-Head Tipsters tipped the card, many bagged 7 from 8, and the round's worst performance came from Home Sweet Home with just 3 from 8. Bookie_9 still leads all Tipsters, now on 124.5 from 163 (76%), one tip ahead of Combo_NN_1 and BKB on 123.5 and a further tip ahead of Combo_NN_2 on 122.5.
Unexpectedly large victory margins - especially the Hawks' 165-point demolition of Port Adelaide - universally damaged MAPEs this week resulting in an all-Predictor average of 41.83 points per game for the round, the 2nd-highest average this season. Best MAPE was recorded by a Predictor not known for its prowess this season, H2H_Adjusted_7, with an MAPE for the round of 40.39 point per game.
The results for the top 5 Margin Predictors were:
- Combo_7 - 40.96 points per game
- Combo_NN_1 - 41.11 points per game
- Bookie_3 - 43.06 points per game
- Bookie_9 - 43.08 points per game
- Combo_NN_2 - 45.84 points per game
Combo_7's superior performance to Bookie_3's allowed it to close the gap between their respective season-long performances, which now stands at just 0.66 points per game with Bookie_3 on 29.14 and Combo_7 on 29.80. Bookie_9 remains in third on 30.55 points per game.
Line betting also proved challenging this week, with the average performance of 4 from 8 no better than chance and with no single Predictor scoring more than 5 from 8. Across the entire season, the only Predictor whose predictions would have unlocked profitability remains Bookie_3.
The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors turned in their 4th successive week of positive probability scores. Best amongst them was the TAB Sportsbet bookmaker, though only very narrowly ahead of the two H2H Probability Predictors. Consequently, the TAB Sportsbet bookmaker remains atop the Head-to-Head Probability Scoring Leaderboard in what has been a banner year for head-to-head probability scoring.
Meantime the Line Fund algorithm returned to the status quo this week in registering a mildly negative probability score, dragged down especially by the Dons', Tigers' and Crows' line betting successes, all of which the Line Fund algorithm rated as only 32-36% chances.
