I was thinking about the Strength of Schedule metric used in this blog from yesterday, and it struck me that, rather than using the raw values of the opponent team’s MoSHBODS rating and (for some metrics) the net Venue Performance Values (VPVs) for a game, we could, instead, convert these numbers into a win probability, which might make the resulting aggregate Strength of Schedule value more readilly interpretable.

The men’s AFL fixture for 2024 was recently released and, once again this year, we’ll analyse it to see what it means for all 18 teams.