Determining Bookmaker Implicit Probabilities: The Risk-Equalising Approach
/In the previous blog I developed a new way of divining a bookmaker's probability assessments of the two teams by assuming that he believes his maximum calibration error - the (negative) difference between his probability assessment for a team and its true probability of victory - is the same for each team in percentage point terms, and that he levies overround on each team's price so as to ensure that it will still deliver an expected profit even if his probability assessment is maximally in error.
Read More