The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as follows:

1. Brisbane Lions, Melbourne, Fremantle, and Geelong: virtually assured of a Top 8 finish, 60-70% chances for Top 4, and 15-25% chances for the Minor Premiership

2. Carlton, Sydney, and St Kilda: 70-80% chance of playing Finals, 30-45% chance of a Top 4 finish, 4-8% chances for Minor Premiership

3. Collingwood and Richmond: 60-65% chance of playing Finals, 15-20% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshot for Minor Premiership

4. Gold Coast and Western Bulldogs: 30-45% chance of playing Finals, 5-9% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

5. Port Adelaide: 7-9% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

6. Adelaide, Hawthorn, and GWS: 0.5-1% chance of playing Finals

7. Essendon: extreme longshots to play Finals

8. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as followed:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 4 finish and about a 2-in-5 chance to be Minor Premier

2. Geelong, Brisbane Lions, and Fremantle: 90%+ chance of playing Finals, 60% chance of a Top 4 finish and 1-in-7 to 1-in-8 chance of being Minor Premier

3. St Kilda, Sydney, and Carlton : 65-80% chance of playing Finals, 25-40% chance of a Top 4 finish, 5-7% chances for Minor Premiership

4. Richmond: 55-60% chance of playing Finals, 15-20% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshot for Minor Premiership

5. Collingwood, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: 35-50% chance of playing Finals, 6-9% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

6. Port Adelaide: 15-20% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. Adelaide, Hawthorn, and GWS: 1% chance of playing Finals

8. Essendon: extreme longshots to play Finals

9. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog).

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as followed:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 4 finish and about a 3-in-5 chance to be Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: 65-70% chance of a Top 4 finish and 1-in-5 or 1-in-6 chance of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, St Kilda, and Geelong: 80-90% chance of playing Finals, 40-50% chance of a Top 4 finish, 5-10% chances for Minor Premiership

4. Carlton: 70-80% chance of playing Finals, 30-35% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for Minor Premiership

5. Sydney, Richmond, and Western Bulldogs: 55-65% chance of playing Finals, 15-20% chance of a Top 4 finish, extreme longshots for Minor Premiership

6. Collingwood and Gold Coast: 35-45% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

7. Port Adelaide: 15-20% chance of playing Finals, extreme longshots for a Top 4 finish

8. Hawthorn, Adelaide, and GWS: 1-4% chance of playing Finals

9. Essendon: less than 1% chance of playing Finals

10. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as followed:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 4 finish and very likely to be Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: 65-75% chance of a Top 4 finish and 1-in-8 or 1-in-9 chance of being Minor Premier

3. Carlton, St Kilda, Geelong, Fremantle, and Richmond: 70-90% chance of playing Finals, 25-50% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for Minor Premiership

4. Sydney: 60-65% chance of playing Finals, 20-25% chance of a Top 4 finish

5. Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide: 25-45% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

6. Hawthorn: 15% chance of playing Finals

7. Adelaide and GWS: 2-4% chance of playing Finals

8. Essendon: less than 1% chance of playing Finals

9. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

The latest simulations - both Standard and Heretical - suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as followed:

1. Melbourne: virtually assured of a Top 4 finish and very likely to be Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions: 75-80% chance of a Top 4 finish and 1-in-6 chance of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, Carlton, St Kilda, Sydney, and Geelong: 75-90% chance of playing Finals, 30-50% chance of a Top 4 finish, longshots for Minor Premiership

4. Richmond: 60% chance of playing Finals, outside chance of a Top 4 finish

5. Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, and Gold Coast: 30-40% chance of playing Finals, longshots for a Top 4 finish

6. Collingwood, Hawthorn, and Adelaide: 5-15% chance of playing Finals

7. GWS and Essendon: longshots to play Finals

8. North Melbourne and West Coast: very likely to fight for the Spoon

This week’s Standard and Heretical Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just under 7% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just over 1% points. Those numbers are quite similar to last week’s and suggest that we’re still at a similar point in the season, at least in terms of how single rounds affect key probability estimates.

This week’s Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just under 6% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just under 5% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.7 wins, just over 6% points, and 5% points. Those average percentage point changes are about the same as we saw last week.

This weeks’ Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.5 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just over 6% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just 4% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.6 wins, 6% points, and 4% points. Those average percentage point changes are again smaller than we saw last week, hinting again that the overall level of uncertainty is on the decline.

This weeks’ Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just over 7% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by just under 5% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.7 wins, 7% points, and 5.5% points. Those average percentage point changes are smaller than we saw last week, which perhaps indicates that the simulations are settling down somewhat.

This weeks’ Standard Methodology simulations see the average team’s Expected Win count change by 0.6 wins, probability of making the 8 change by just under 9% points, and probability of finishing Top 4 change by 6.5% points. The equivalent values for the Heretical Methodology are 0.8 wins, 8% points, and 7% points.

By way of context, those values are quite similar to those for the previous round, which were:

• Standard Methodology: 0.7 wins; 9% points for Top 8; 6% points for Top 4

• Heretical Methodology: 0.8 wins; 7.5 points for Top 8; 5.5% points for Top 4

All of which is to say that, on those metrics, the Round 4 results altered the average team’s chances by about the same amount as did the Round 3 results.

MoSHBODS is still making fairly large adjustments in its Team Ratings, and this is reflected in the simulation details that appear below.

With twice the amount of information about each team’s 2020 season form, it’s no surprise that the estimates of their Finals and other chances have changed quite a bit again this week.

The first round results have, as usual, changed most people’s estimates of many of the 18 team’s chances of playing Finals football, and they’ve changed MoSHBODS’ estimates, too.

In this the third-ever, wildly speculative, pre-season ladder simulation, I’ll again be using the two methodologies I call Standard and Heretical, which are described below.

Today we take a look at the results of the final MoSHBODS-based simulation for the season.

Today we take a look at a MoSHBODS-based simulation of the remaining five games of the Finals.

Today we take a first look at a MoSHBODS-based simulation of the nine games of the Finals.

The latest simulation results appear below in what is a relatively short post this week, as only a few of the analyses seem particularly relevant

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog.)

The latest simulations of the final home and away ladder appear below.

Using the Standard Methodology we have:

• six teams certain to play Finals, four teams with chances roughly in the 40 to 50% range, two with chances in the 8 to 12% range, and one team with a 1-in-500 chance

• one team certain to finish Top 4, three teams with chances in roughly the 90 to 95% range, one team with a 20% chance, and another with a 3% chance.

Under the Heretical Methodology we have:

• six teams certain to play Finals, four teams with chances roughly in the 40 to 55% range, two with chances in the 8 to 11% range, and one team with a 1-in-500 chance

• one team certain to finish Top 4, three teams with chances in roughly the 85 to 95% range, one team with a 25% chance, and another with about a 1-in-40 chance.

The latest simulations of the home and away ladder appear below. In reviewing them, note that the comparisons to the Round 19 simulations include some changes that are related to the late venue changes in that round, which were not included in the simulation results that were published here last week. Those effects should be relatively small.

In any case, this week we find from using the Standard Methodology that we have:

• six teams certain to play Finals, one team about a 2-in-3 shot, another about a 2-in-5 shot, four more teams with about 1-in-6 to 1-in-3 chances, and one team with a 1-in-25 chance

• three teams with about 19-in-20 to 99-in-100 shots at the Top 4, one with around 2-in-3 chances, one team with about a 1-in-3 chances, and one with about 1-in-13 chances

Under the Heretical Methodology we have:

• six teams certain to play Finals, one team about a 3-in-5 shot, another about a 9-in-20 shot, four more teams with about 1-in-6 to 1-in-3 chances, and one team with a 1-in-20 chance

• three teams with about 19-in-20 to 99-in-100 shots at the Top 4, one with around 2-in-3 chances, one team with about a 1-in-3 chances, and one with about 1-in-13 chances

As we would expect, the Standard and Heretical Methodologies become more similar as the season nears its end.