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2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 7

Tony Corke

This year’s post Round 7 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

  1. Geelong: 98% chances of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. GWS and Sydney: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne and Carlton: 80% chances of being finalists; 45-50% chances of Top 4; 7% to 9% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Port Adelaide: 65% chances of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 3% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Collingwood: 55% chances of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Gold Coast, Essendon, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions: 40-45% chance of being finalists; 9-12% chance of Top 4; 0.5-1% chance of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda and Adelaide: 15% chances of being finalists; 2% of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

  8. West Coast: 4% chances of being finalists; 0.5% chance of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

  9. Richmond and Hawthorn: 1.5% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

  10. North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.

There were just a few large movements in teams’ Final chances this week, with Port Adelaide’s and Brisbane Lions’ Finals chances falling most substantially (c 17% points), and Carlton’s rising most substantially (also c 17% points).

There are now seven teams with a 5-in-9 or higher chance of playing Finals, and 12 with about a 2-in-5 chance or higher. There are also seven teams with a 20% or higher chance of finishing Top 4, and four with about a 10% or better chance of taking the Minor Premiership.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for these pre-season simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:

  • How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for

  • How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position

Overall ladder uncertainty a little more3.5this week, with the majority of teams still effectively fighting for between 11 and 14 ladder positions, and most ladder positions having 11 to 13.5 teams effectively fighting for them.

On the teams side, the largest exceptions are North Melbourne, Geelong, Richmond, and Hawthorn, while on the ladder positions side, the largest exceptions are 1st, 2nd, 16th, 17th, and 18th.

Tthe ladder positions with the most uncertainty remain those in the middle of the table, from about 4th to 14th.

We also see that the average team is effectively competing for about 10 positions, and the average ladder position has about 10 teams competing for it.

WINS AND LADDER POSITION

Let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.

Based on the simulations, we can say that:

  • For teams finishing 8th in a replicate: 24% had 12 wins (down 6%), 36% had 13 wins (down 5%), and 14% had 12.5 wins (also, 2.5% had 11 wins, and 14% had 12.5 wins).

  • For teams finishing 4th in a replicate: 32% had 15 wins (down 5%), 28% had 16 wins (down 1%), and 11% had 15.5 wins (also, 8% had 14 wins, and 6% had 14.5 wins).

(Note that the draw has made any changes in the whole number of wins percentages a bit more difficult to interpret.)

Looked at another way:

  • For teams finishing win 11 wins: 2.5% made Finals (down 0.5%)

  • For teams finishing win 12 wins: 28% made Finals (down 3%)

  • For teams finishing win 13 wins: 79% made Finals (down 1%)

  • For teams finishing win 14 wins: 99% made Finals and 8% finished Top 4 (down 2%)

  • For teams finishing win 15 wins: 46% finished Top 4 (down 3%)

  • For teams finishing win 16 wins: 86% finished Top 4 (down 2%)

Here’s what it looks like on a team-by-team basis:

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are that:

  • There’s now only about a 1-in-3 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (down by about 6% on last week)

  • There’s now only about a 3-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (down by about 5% on last week)

  • There’s still about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down by only about 1% on last week)

FINALS CHANCES

Finally, here’s what the simulations provide by way of finals-related probabilities