2020 : Simulating the Finals before Week 2

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With the venues (and teams) for the two Semi Finals now determined, along with the venues for both Preliminary Finals, a few more sources of variability have been removed from any projections of the Finals series.

So, let’s look at what MoSHBODS makes of it all, using the methodology as discussed in last week’s blog.

RESULTS

In the first chart we look at the estimated probabilities for each of the 8 Finalists going out in a particular week of the Finals.

Compared to our projections before Week 1, the changes in the teams’ Flag chances are as follows:

  • Port Adelaide: +4%

  • Brisbane Lions: +11%

  • Richmond: -5%

  • Geelong: -14%

  • West Coast: -1%

  • St Kilda: No change

  • Western Bulldogs: -2%

  • Collingwood: +7%

Port Adelaide and Brisbane Lions, between them, now account for the winner in about 3 simulation replicates in 4. Richmond and Collingwood account for about 1 in 10 replicates each.

Part of the reason for Collingwood’s elevated and Geelong’s depressed chances is how venue effects are calculated for their upcoming clash at the Gabba, which sees MoSHBODS rate the Pies as about 55% chances to win despite having a lower underlying Combined Rating, which we can see in the chart below that analyses the paths to elimination followed by each team.

Lastly, let’s look at what the replicates reveal about possible Grand Final matchups.

We see that a Port Adelaide v Geelong Grand Final now only accounts for 9% of replicates (down about 14% points), with the most-common pairing Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions, which appears in 47% of replicates (up about 30% points).

Next most-common is a Richmond v Brisbane Lions Grand Final, which appears in just under 19% of replicates (up about 5% points).

Other pairings with non-trivial estimated chances are:

  • Port Adelaide v Collingwood: 14%

  • Richmond v Collingwood: 5%

  • Geelong v Richmond: 4%