Simulating the Finals for 2016 After Round 23

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You could argue - and I'd probably not have a strong rebuttal for you - that MoSSBODS has been overestimating the Crows' Flag chances for a while now, but whether or not that's true I think it's objectively apparent their unexpected loss last weekend caused those chances to reduce dramatically.

From MoSSBODS' point of view, the Crows are now, in fact, only more likely to win the Flag than the Eagles, Dogs and Roos.

More specifically, MoSSBODS now rates the Crows as about 10% chances for the Flag and has the Cats as about 32% favourites ahead of Sydney (25%), GWS (18%), and Hawthorn (11%). At current TAB prices that still makes the Crows value at $11, but also Geelong at $3.75 and GWS at $6.

In terms of the method of elimination from the Finals, Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS are all most likely to go out in a Preliminary Final, though Sydney is also more likely to play in the Grand Final than to miss it.

Adelaide and West Coast are both most likely to bow out in a Semi-Final, and the Western Bulldogs and the Kangaroos to bow out (well bow-wow out in the Dogs' case, I guess) in their Elimination Finals.

The most likely Grand Final matchup, according to MoSSBODS, sees the Cats face the Swans, though this pairing occurred only fractionally more often than a repeat of this weekend's Swans v GWS game.

Only two other pairings occurred in at least 10% of simulation replicates - Geelong v GWS (15%) and Geelong v Hawthorn (10%).

All of the 26 possible pairings appeared in at least 1 of the 100,000 replicates, though the Cats v Roos, Hawks v Roos, Eagles v Roos, and Dogs v Roos pairings all showed up in fewer than 100 of them.

Given the probabilities shown here the only quinellas that represent value at current TAB prices are:

  • Geelong v GWS at $8
  • Adelaide v GWS at $26
  • Geelong v Adelaide at $51
  • Adelaide v Hawthorn at $81
  • Geelong v Western Bulldogs at $101
  • Adelaide v Western Bulldogs at $251

Amongst the pairings that have at least a 5% chance of occurring according to the simulations, the most closely-fought Grand Final would have the Swans facing the Hawks (where Sydney would be 51% favourites), and the least well-matched would see the Cats facing GWS (where the Cats would be 66% favourites).