Simulating the Finalists for 2014 : After Round 17

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Based on 25,000 simulations, Round 17 results provided relatively little fresh information about the likely make-up of the 2014 Finalists.

What we found was the following:

  • Sydney are now slightly more likely to be Minor Premiers (51% vs 46%) and Port Adelaide are now almost certainly not going to fill that spot (0.9% vs 6.8%).
  • Geelong, Hawthorn and the Roos are more likely to finish in the Top 4, while Port Adelaide (37% vs 62%) are far less likely to do so.
  • Collingwood (62% vs 79%) and the Gold Coast (37% vs 58%) are less likely to make the Top 8, while Essendon (49% vs 18%) and West Coast (7% vs 4%) are more likely to do so.
  • St Kilda (90% vs 86%) are more likely to win the Spoon

In terms of value on TAB markets, just three wagers currently carry an edge greater than 5%:

  • Hawthorn for the Minor Premiership at $6.50 (75% edge)
  • Gold Coast to make the Final 8 at $3,25 (21% edge)
  • Essendon to miss the Final 8 at $2.15 (9% edge)

Hawthorn for the Minor Premiership are down from the $9 price at which we flagged them as value last week, but their $6.50 price still represents a healthy edge, as you can see.

There are small but positive expectations for a number of other AFL Futures wagers, but none offer an edge greater than 5%.

Round 17 results have also served to compress the team manhattans, with all but one team (the Roos) now simulated as finishing somewhere in a range spanning at most 11 places. For seven teams, the range of likely finishes spans no more than 8 places.

On a team-by-team basis, we now have:

  • Adelaide most likely to finish between 7th and 10th
  • Brisbane Lions most likely to finish 16th or 17th
  • Carlton most likely to finish 14th
  • Collingwood most likely to finish between 7th and 9th
  • Essendon most likely to finish between 7th and 10th
  • Fremantle most likely to finish 2nd or 3rd
  • Geelong most likely to finish between 3rd and 6th
  • Gold Coast most likely to finish between 8th and 10th
  • GWS most likely to finish 16th or 17th
  • Hawthorn most likely to finish between 1st and 3rd
  • Kangaroos most likely to finish between 4th and 6th
  • Melbourne most likely to finish 15th
  • Port Adelaide most likely to finish between 4th and 6th
  • Richmond most likely to finish 12th
  • St Kilda most likely to finish 18th
  • Sydney most likely to finish 1st
  • West Coast most likely to finish 11th or 12th
  • Western Bulldogs most likely to finish 13th

Looking next at the team heat maps we can see that the simulations suggest there are seven natural groupings of the teams in terms of likely ladder finishes.

Those groups are as follows:

  • Teams most likely to fill the Top 3: Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle
  • Teams most likely to fill positions 4 to 6: Geelong, Port Adelaide and Kangaroos
  • Teams most likely to fill positions 7 to 10: Collingwood, Essendon, Adelaide and Gold Coast
  • Teams most likely to fill positions 11 and 12: West Coast and Richmond
  • Teams most likely to fill positions 13 and 14: Western Bulldogs and Carlton
  • Teams most likely to fill positions 15 to 17: Melbourne, Brisbane Lions and GWS
  • Team most likely to finish 18th: St Kilda

According to the simulations, the most common quinella is now Sydney-Fremantle, which carries a 22% probability, followed by a Sydney-Hawthorn finish with a 20% probability. A Hawthorn-Sydney finish (16%) is next most common, followed by a Fremantle-Sydney finish (12%).

The most likely Top 4 is Sydney-Hawthorn-Fremantle-Geelong (6.3%), though the Sydney-Fremantle-Hawthorn-Geelong (5.3%) and Sydney-Fremantle-Geelong-Hawthorn (4.7%) combinations are almost equally likely.

The final Top 8 is still subject to very high levels of variability, the most-common simulated result of Sydney-Hawthorn-Fremantle-Geelong-Port Adelaide-Kangaroos-Collingwood-Gold Coast still worthy of odds in excess of 250/1.