In an earlier blog, we built models to predict the Low and High Offers made to contestants in The Chase UK and found that we were able to explain roughly half the variability in the Offers made - a little more in the case of models built for the Low Offers by Seat, and generally a little less in the case of models build for the High Offers by Seat.

Since that blog was posted, I’ve had some excellent suggestions for things to try that might improve the models’ fit, and I’ve also had some thoughts of my own.

After you’ve watched The Chase for a while, you become familiar with the patterns of the contest and feel as though you can make reasonable guesses about the Low and High Offers that will be made to a contestant at the start of his or her head-to-head, based on how well they did in their Cash Builder, which seat they came from, and the overall state of the contest.

Darragh Ennis became the sixth UK Chaser when he appeared in an episode that aired on the 19th of November 2020 where he won chasing a target of 16 against a team of two finalists, offering five pushbacks and answering the last question with 7 seconds still on the clock.

That started a remarkable run of 14 consecutive wins, which was the best start of any UK Chaser to date.

In late 2021, I wrote a piece describing a series of models designed to estimate the progressive chances of a team’s success on an episode of The Chase Australia as that episodes unfolds.