AFLW 2024 - Round 3 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has nibbled at the Totals market in both the remaining games

  • In Essendon v St Kilda: 1.8% u76.5 @ $1.85

  • In GWS v Gold Coast: 2% o79.5 @ $1.85

UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS, undeterred by its 1 and 4 overs record has taken:

  • In Adelaide v Hawthorn: 1.2% u77.5 @ $1.85

It’s passed on the Melbourne v North Melbourne game and is awaiting Totals markets for the final two games of the round

UPDATE 12:15PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS likes what it sees in the Totals markets on all three games today and has taken:

  • In Sydney v Richmond: 1.4% u77.5 @ $1.85

  • In Carlton v Geelong: 2% o69.5 @ $1.85 (note that rain is forecast for this game but the estimated overlay exceeds a goal, so overs betting is permitted)

  • In Port Adelaide v Fremantle: 5.4% u80.5 @ $1.87

UPDATE 2:30PM FRIDAY

Just a quick note to advise that we had no bet on yesterday’s game, purely because I thought it was a Friday game and that rain was therefore expected, which would have meant our estimated overlay of 2.6 would have been insufficeint to overcome the women’s rain rule.

Had I known, we would have had a small overs bet on that game, but that’s all by-the-by now.

Today we have the smallest of unders wagers: 0.3% of the Fund u82.5 @ $1.85

AFLW 2024 - Round 3

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WoSHBODS this week agrees with the experts about which team should be favourite in every contest except the last, where WoSHBODS favours the home team. and the experts narrowly favour Gold Coast.

In three games, WoSHBODS is forecasting a larger margin of victory for the favourites, in four it is forecasting a smaller margin of victory, and in one it is forecasting roughly the same margin of victory as the experts.

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AFLW 2024 - Round 2 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE NOON SATURDAY

Undaunted by our two distastrous forays into the Totals market so far, WoSHBODS has returned today with four more wagers:

  • 4.9% of the Fund o74.5 @ $1.87 on the Gold Coast v Carlton game

  • 4.4% of the Fund u86.5 @ $1.85 on the North Melbourne v Geelong game

  • 2.9% of the Fund o80.5 @ $1.87 on the St Kilda v Sydney game

  • 3.5% of the Fund u83.5 @ $1.87 on the Fremantle v Adelaide game

(At last - some unders bets!)

UPDATE 9:30AM SATURDAY

We currently have markets from both bookmakers for the next two games and have taken:

  • 6.9% of the Fund o78.5 @ $1.85 on the Melbourne v Brisbane game

UPDATE 2PM FRIDAY

As I type this, with only one-and-a-half hours until the first centre-bounce, Sportsbet has no over/under markets for any AFLW game.

The TAB is only mildly more advanced, but does have one for this afternoon’s game, which currently is:

  • o67.5 $1.87 / u67.5 $1.87 (if you want to infer what this means for individual team scores, the current line is +16.5 and $1.87/$1.87)

WoSHBODS has an estimated total for this game of 89 and so has taken the overs despite forecast rain for the MCG. You’ll recall that WoSHBODS is permitted to take overs in AFLW games with forecast rain provided the estimated overlay exceeds 6 points, which it does here.

So, the first AFLW unders/overs wager for 2024 is 7% of the Fund o67.5 @ $1.87.

AFLW 2024 - Round 2

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The WoSHBODS algorithm is very sensitive to Round 1 results - far moreso than MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS - on the basis that history strongly suggests that the previous season’s performances are somewhat less relevant in the following AFLW season than they are in AFLM.

Somewhat comfortingly, these largish adjustments have led to forecasts with seven of the nine WoSHBODS-favoured teams also being the bookmaker favourites.

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