AFLW 2022 Spring Edition - Round 7 - Results

/

Another fairly good week from WoSHBODS, with a Margin MAE of 18.8 points per game, a Totals MAE of 11..5 points per game, a hugely positive LPS, and a 7 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.

We can break down that overall Margin MAE of 20.5 points per game into team-by-team contributions, which we do in the table at right and which shows that WoSHBODS has been particularly precise in game margins for matches involving the Pies, Dogs, Dees, Roos, and Tigers, and particularly imprecise in game margins for matches involving the Lions, Giants, Crows, and Saints.

Looking solely at the four expansion teams - whose results we might expect would be hardest to forecast - we have Hawthorn slightly under and Essendon well under the all-team average, and Port Adelaide and Sydney much higher than the average.

Altogether, 10 teams have MAEs below the all-team average, and eight have MAEs above the all-team average.

We can also break down the overall Margin MAE based on the size of the eventual victory, which we do in the table at left and which shows that, perhaps unsurprisingly, it has been the larger victories where the forecasts have been least accurate

In fact, there is a fairly direct relationship between the size of the victory and the size of the average absolute error.

What’s also true is that WoSHBODS has tended to be more accurate in games that were won by relatively large margins. It is 16 from 31 in games won by under 3 goals, and 26.5 from 32 in games won by 3 goals or more.

The Ranking on Team Metrics table appears below and continues to shows lots of green for teams currently in the eight, which suggests that the rankings on most metrics are fairly highly correlated with ladder position, the exceptions still being:

  • Own and Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion

  • Q1 Performances

We see, for example, that three of bottom four teams on Own Scoring Shot Conversion are in the top 8 on the ladder, as are the two bottom teams on Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion.

Lastly, here is the full Team Dashboard (now with more detail about quarter-by-quarter scoring), which shows that:

  • Essendon are 2-0-5 despite having a 102 percentage

  • Sydney have scored half their points in Q1s

  • Fremantle have conceded about 40% of points in Q4s

  • Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, Hawthorn, and St Kilda have conceded 35% of points or more in Q1s

  • Brisbane Lions have conceded 80% of their point in Q1s and Q3s

  • Sydney have still won only 2 quarters all season (and none in Q3 or Q4)

  • Brisbane Lions and Collingwood have won 20 and drawn 2 of 28 quarters

  • St Kilda have won 86% and have a 171 percentage in Q4s