Matter of Stats

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MatterOfStats 2017 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

Tony Corke

For this, the last Team Dashboard for 2017, we'll do all of the standard analyses we've been doing throughout the season.

Ranking on Dashboard Metrics v Competition Ladder Position

  • Adelaide (1st on the ladder) is: 14th on Opponents' Conversion Rate and 12th on Q1 performances
  • Geelong (2nd on the ladder) is: 11th on Q1 performances, and 8th on Q3 performances
  • Richmond (3rd on the ladder) is: 8th on Own Scoring Shot Production, 14th on Own Conversion Rate, and 15th on Q2 performances
  • GWS (4th on the ladder) is: 12th on Own Conversion Rate, and 9th on Q3 performances
  • Port Adelaide (5th on the ladder) is: 13th on Own Conversion Rate
  • Sydney (6th on the ladder) is: 1st on Opponent Scoring Shot Production, and 11th on Q4 performances
  • Essendon (7th on the ladder) is: 14th on Opponent Scoring Shot Production, 2nd on Q1 performances, 12th on Q2 performances, and 12th on Q3 performances
  • West Coast (8th on the ladder) is: 13th on Own Scoring Shot Production, 3rd on Opponents' Conversion Rate, 1st on Q1 performances, and 14th on Q4 performances
  • Melbourne (9th on the ladder) is: 1st of Own Conversion Rate, 3rd on Q2 performances, and 4th on Q3 performances
  • Western Bulldogs (10th on the ladder) is: 18th on Own Conversion Rate, and 5th on Q3 performances
  • St Kilda (11th on the ladder) is: 13th on Own Scoring Shot Production, 17th on Own Conversion Rate, and 16th on Opponents' Conversion Rate
  • Hawthorn (12th on the ladder) is: 6th on Own Conversion Rate, 5th on Q1 performances, 18th on Q3 performances, and 7th on Q4 performances
  • Collingwood (13th on the ladder) is: 8th on Opponents' Scoring Shot Production, and 7th on Q2 performances
  • Fremantle (14th on the ladder) is: between 13th and 18th on every metric
  • Kangaroos (15th on the ladder) is: 8th on Own Conversion Rate, and 10th on Q3 performances
  • Carlton (16th on the ladder) is: 11th on Own Conversion Rate, and 11th on Q3 performances
  • Gold Coast (17th on the ladder) is: 7th on Own Conversion Rate, 10th on Opponents' Conversion Rate, and 7th on Q1 performances
  • Brisbane Lions (18th on the ladder) is: 2nd on Own Conversion Rate, 9th on Opponents' Conversion Rate, and 11th on Q2 performances

CORRELATIONS BETWEEN LADDER POSITIONS AND DASHBOARD METRICS

  • Ladder Position vs Own Scoring Shot Production: +0.80
  • Ladder Position vs Opponent Scoring Shot Production: +0.83
  • Ladder Position vs Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.03
  • Ladder Position vs Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.57
  • Ladder Position vs Quarter 1 Performances: +0.45
  • Ladder Position vs Quarter 2 Performances: +0.57
  • Ladder Position vs Quarter 3 Performances: +0.71
  • Ladder Position vs Quarter 4 Performances: +0.88

So, we finish the home and away season with virtually no correlation between the teams' ordering on Own Conversion and their ladder position. This year was all about generating and preventing scoring shots (and a little about controlling the quality of shots allowed by opponents).

COMPARISON BETWEEN ACTUAL WINNING RATE AND EXPECTED WINNING RATE ACCORDING TO A WIN PRODUCTION FUNCTION

According to the MoS Win Production Function:

  • Fremantle won 2.8 games more than might be expected
  • Hawthorn won 1.6 games more than might be expected
  • GWS won 1.0 games more than might be expected
  • Geelong won 0.9 games more than might be expected
  • St Kilda won 0.9 games more than might be expected
  • Western Bulldogs won 0.8 games more than might be expected
     
  • Port Adelaide won 2.3 games fewer than might be expected
  • Kangaroos won 2.0 games fewer than might be expected
  • Sydney won 1.8 games fewer than might be expected
  • Adelaide won 1.7 games fewer than might be expected 
  • Collingwood won 1.1 games fewer than might be expected

Based on those expectations, the teams ranked most differently on the competition ladder relative to what their scoring statistics imply are:

  • Fremantle: 3 places higher than would be expected
  • Geelong, GWS and Richmond: 2 places higher than would be expected
     
  • Port Adelaide, Sydney and Collingwood: 3 places lower than would be expected

The final ladder based on the Win Production Function would have been:

  1. Adelaide

  2. Port Adelaide

  3. Sydney

  4. Geelong

  5. Richmond

  6. GWS

  7. Essendon

  8. West Coast

  9. Melbourne

  10. Collingwood

  11. Western Bulldogs

  12. St Kilda

  13. Hawthorn

  14. Kangaroos

  15. Carlton

  16. Gold Coast

  17. Fremantle

  18. Brisbane Lions