2024 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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MoSSBODS reranked a remarkable 15 teams this week, and MoSHBODS an almost as remarkable 12, which left them with a shared Top 3 of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions.

Eleven teams moved multiple spots on MoSSBODS, the biggest climbs being Gold Coast and Hawthorn up 3 spots, and the biggest falls being Collingwood and GWS down 3 spots. Only five teams moved multiple spots on MoSHBODS, but they included Collingwood down 6 spots, Melbourne down 3 spots, and Hawthorn up 4 spots.

On MoSSBODS, 2nd and 15th are now separated by only 5.4 Scoring Shots (which is about 20 points), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 13th are separated by only 17.4 points. It remains outrageous.

The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9918 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.64 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.

On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS still with a Top 3 of Swans, Lions, and Blues, with MoSHBODS still keeping Carlton in 2nd above the Lions but also having the Swans in 1st. On defence, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now have Top 3s of Swans, Dockers, and Dogs.

MoSSBODS now has only eight teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS has 10. Also, MoSSBODS still has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS has only 11 so rated.

Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS span a range of 8.9 scoring shots (about 32 points) and defensive ratings a range of just 6.4 scoring shots (about 23 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 29.1 points and defensive ratings a range of 23.6 points. Offensive abilities therefore still seem to span a greater range than defensive abilities across the 18 teams this season.

We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.

We can put these Ratings into an historical context by seeing how they compare to the Ratings of teams from previous seasons at the end of Round 19 (assuming they had one in their respective home and away season).

Sydney, despite losing this week to the Lions, remain the only team with a Rating in the top 50% of those that went on to play in a Grand Final.

On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 5 are rated negatively on both (up 2), one is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1).

The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.69, which is up quite a bit on last week.

And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked 13 teams this week, but left the Top 3 unchanged as Sydney, Brisbane Lions, and Carlton.

Below them, Fremantle, Adelaide, and Port Adelaide all rose 2 spots, while Melbourne and Collingwood fell 2 spots, and Geelong fell 3 spots. No other teams moved by more than a single spot.

Just under 22 Rating Points now separates 2nd from 12th, which roughly equates to a score gap at a neutral venue of about 3 goals.

By way of comparison, at the end of Round 19 last season, the gap between 2nd and 12th was about 35 Rating Points, or roughly 28 points.

There are now 12 teams rated better-than-average by MARS, with Gold Coast and St Kilda rated just below 1,000.

Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and comparing them with the teams’ competition ladder positions, we find relatively large differences between the teams’ ladder positions and their rating system ordering for:

HIGHER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Essendon

LOWER ON LADDER THAN ON RANKING SYSTEMS: Western Bulldogs and Adelaide

MARS this week provides the most outlying rankings at 12, ahead of MoSSBODS with 6, and MoSHBODS with just 4.

MARS is particularly different in terms of its ranking of GWS.

MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 3 teams now, MoSSBODS and MARS also about only 3, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 9.

Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that GWS has the widest range of rankings at seven spots, and that there are only three other teams where the rankings span more than two spots.

There are two teams that the Systems unanimously rank: Richmond and Sydney.