2024 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders

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The twins disagree significantly about likely Totals in a few games this week, whilst the bookmakers differ by no more than q point on any game.

Overall, MoSHBODS is again the most optimistic in terms of the average forecast Total, being half-a-goal higher than MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers.

The debate this week is about the highest- and lowest-scoring games:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: West Coast v Brisbane Lions

  • MoSHBODS: Western Bulldogs v Carlton

  • Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs v Carlton, and Sydney v North Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Hawthorn v Fremantle

  • TAB: Adelaide v St Kilda

  • Sportsbet: Adelaide v St Kilda, and Hawthorn v Fremantle

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Sydney

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Investors have wagers in four games again this week, three unders and one overs, each of which has again been accommodated by a single bookmaker.

The four wagers total just under 12% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

The estimated overlays for the games where we do have wagers are between 4.3 and 9.9 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.2% to 4.6% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared between the TAB and MoSHBODS again this week:

  • Game Margins: TAB

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSHBODS

No title switched hands this week, and the leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 25 points ahead of Sportsbet and 93 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 22 points ahead of the TAB and 31 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 3 points ahead of the TAB, 15 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 17 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 1 point ahead of the TAB, 5 points of Sportsbet, and 14 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had wagers on four games last week, one overs with the TAB that finished 0 and 1, and three unders with the TAB that finished 2 and 1.

It ended then at 21 and 27 with the TAB, and at 18 and 10 with Sportsbet, for an overall 39 and 37 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 6 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 79 from 144 (55%) against the TAB, and 81 from 144 (56%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS also landed 6 from 9 against both bookmakers, which took it to 77 from 144 (54%) against the TAB, and 77 from 144 (54%) against Sportsbet.

MoSSBODS therefore continued its fine tradition of recording a worse record In the games on which it wagered (2 from 4) than on the games on which it did not (4 from 5).