2024 - Round 11 : Overs/Unders

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There are some larger differences in both directions at the individual game level but, overall, the MoS twins are forecasting slightly lower Totals this week.

There’s much more divergence in opinions about this week’s highests and lowests, although the splits are all along model / bookmaker lines.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Geelong v GWS

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Melbourne v St Kilda (bookmakers also Fremantle v Collingwood)

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: St Kilda

  • Bookmakers: North Melbourne

WAGERS

Investors have six wagers this week, three unders and three overs in a variety of sizes.

It includes a bet sized 4.9% that would have been 5% but for Sportsbet placing a ceiling on my wagering precisely $3.50 below the amount I wanted to outlay. I’m pretty sure no human was involved in that decision.

Those estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from just over 5 to just under 13 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.5% to 6.2% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) belonged solely to MoSHBODS this week.:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSHBODS

Just one season-long title switched hands this week as the TAB grabbed the Game Margin lead from Sportsbet. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 3 points ahead of the Sportsbet and 55 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 24 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 52 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 8 points ahead of the TAB and 9 points ahead of Sportsbet and MoSHBODS

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 11 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 28 points ahead of the TAB

MoSSBODS had seven wagers last week, four unders with the TAB that went 2 and 2, a single over with the TAB that was a loser, and one under and one over with Sportsbet that were both winners.

It ended then at 13 and 14 with the TAB, and at 11 and 5 with Sportsbet, for an overall 24 and 19 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 6 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet for the second week running. That took it to 49 from 90 (54%) against the TAB, and 51 from 90 (57%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 7 from 9 against the TAB and against Sportsbet also for the second week running, which took it to 49 from 90 (54%) against the TAB, and 50 from 90 (56%) against Sportsbet.