2024 - Round 19 : Models Have No Emotions
/Two-thirds of the games in Round 19 are expected to be won by less than about three goals, which include 4 games where the teams are separated by no more than 4 spots on the ladder. In another of the games where the ladder difference is just a single spot - the Saints v Eagles game - the expected margin is 4-and-a-half-goals. That leaves two games where the ladder differences are 9 spots and 15 spots, and the expected margins 40.5 and 34.5 points.
The all-game average expected margin is 18.5 points per game, which is almost 4 points per game higher than last week.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Contrarianism this week is confined to Home Sweet Home in one game, and Consult The Ladder and the RSMP twins in another.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in four games this week: Cats v Dogs (20 points), Saints v Eagles, and Blues v Roos (19 points), and Power v Tigers (16 points).
MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and Bookie_3 in four games.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point forecast range: Cats v Dogs (21% points) and Saints v Eagles (13% points).
MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in all nine games this week, and Bookie_LPSO in six games.
WAGERS
The MoS twins have come loaded for bear this weekend.
The bookmaker dance was confined to the Cats v Dogs match where Investors were seeking a wager of 6.6% of the original Line Fund on the Dogs +18.5 at $1.90, but eventually settled on 4.4% at that line and price, and another 1.8% at +17.5 and $1.90.
In total, Investors have just over 8% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on four teams, and just over 19% of the original Line Fund on six teams - the same four and two more.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The Ready Reckoner reveals that Western Bulldogs carry the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a win and a 19-point loss represents 11.4% of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is borne by West Coast (6.5%), then Richmond (4.2%), Carlton (3.8%), Collingwood (2.9%), and then Melbourne (1.9%).
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 16c, while a worst case set would snip 14.5c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
