AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 8
/Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW (produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post).
So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:
Tier 1 (100% chances to play Finals and 90%+ for Top 4): Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Brisbane
Tier 2 (90%+ chances to play Finals): Collingwood and Gold Coast
Tier 3 (75-80% chances to play Finals): Essendon and Geelong
Tier 4 (15-25% chances to play Finals): Carlton, Richmond, and Sydney
Tier 5 (2-7% chances to play Finals): St Kilda and Fremantle
Tier 6 (0% chances to play Finals): Hawthorn, GWS, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Western Bulldogs
The big movers this week in terms of Finals chances were:
Collingwood: +28% points (to 91%)
Sydney: +10% points (to 14%)
St Kilda: -16% points (to 6%)
Essendon: -15% points (to 75%)
Carlton: -14% points (to 25%)
And, here’s what we now have for the Finals.
The Flag remains mostly a race in three between Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Adelaide, with Melbourne the clear favourite.
That’s a sentiment broadly shared by the markets, albeit that they still rate Brisbane higher.
WHAT IF WE HAD AN ALL-PLAYS-ALL HOME AND AWAY SEASON?
I thought it would be interesting to estimate the impact of the foreshortened season on each team’s finals and Flag chances by simulating a full 34 round all-plays-all home and away season and comparing the results from that simulation with the resuolts above. For the “missing” 24 rounds, I have assumed that each team’s home ground is the ground on which it plays the majority of its home games in the existing 10 round season.
The results are as below:
These suggest that the 10 round home and away season, as compared to the 34 round home and away season:
Has improved Essendon’s, Carlton’s, and Sydney’s chances of playing Finals
Has reduced Richmond’s and Geelong’s chances of playing Finals
Has had little effect on teams’ Grand Final chances
