As I opined at the end of the previous blog on team ratings, last week felt like a clear inflexion point in the season, underscored perhaps most dramatically by the Crows' loss to the Pies, but with contributions from the significant victory margins in many other of the games.

This week could well confirm that transition for teams like Adelaide, Collingwood and Hawthorn - but it might, almost as likely, tell a different story. Call me wise, or call me old-fashioned ...

Regardless, whether or not that narrative is true, one thing that Round 5 does seem somewhat likely to do is provide its share of nail-biting finishes. The TAB bookmaker's expected margin across the nine games is only 13.4 points per game, the second-lowest average of the season so far, and easily the lowest Round 5 average across the period I've tabulated.

Let's have a look at what the MoS forecasters have made of it all.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Despite the narrowness of the expected victories, for the most part the Head-to-Head Tipsters are happy to go with the favourites, with only Home Sweet Home (four times), Consult The Ladder and MoSHBODS_Marg (once each) straying from the partyline.

It's a different story for the Margin Predictors, however, not so much in terms of who they think will win, but instead in terms of how large they expect those wins to be.

C_Marg has gone out on a particular limb in the Melbourne v Richmond game, which it has as a 39-point victory for the Tigers, a margin almost three goals greater than any other Predictor's. MoSHBODS_Marg has been similarly bullish on the Lions' chances over the Suns, mostly because it believes the former enjoy a significant venue advantage at the Gabba. That's led it to predict a 31 point win for the Lions, which is four goals larger than any other Predictor's opinion.

Across the nine games, C_Marg has the round's largest mean absolute deviation (MAD), and MoSHBODS_Marg the second-largest, due largely to the games just mentioned. I have to be honest: I feel almost a fatherly concern about how that might finish.

At the game level, it's the Melbourne v Richmond clash that has prompted the widest diversity of opinions as measured both by MAD (7.0 points per Predictor) and the range of the victory forecasts (32 points). Four other games have MADs in the "moderate" range, which is over 4.0 points per Predictor.

The mean expected margin across the nine games and across all Margin Predictors is 12.7 points per game, which is again this week a little lower than the TAB average of 13.4. 

MoSHBODS_Prob is the Head-to-Head Probability Predictor with the highest MAD this week, despite being the Extreme Tipster in only four contests. That's mainly due to its 81% estimate for the Lions' chances in their game - an estimate that looks increasingly brave the more I analyse it. C_Prob has the second-highest MAD for the round, which just goes to prove that you can't teach a non-sentient algorithm self-restraint.

Three games - the last three of the round - all have high MADs of 6.7% points per Predictor or higher, though the forecast ranges run from only a moderately high 15% points per Predictor to an indisputably large 26% points.

WAGERS

Speaking of inflexions, Investors are very much dependent on the wisdom of MoSHBODS this week, since its somewhat offbeat opinions have led to head-to-head wagers in all but one of the contests. The largest of those is a hero call 8% on the Lions at $1.77. It takes a brave/foolish algorithm (delete whichever proves to be non-applicable come Monday) to suggest a wager of 8% of a Fund on any team that registered fewer goals in its whole game last week than 12 others did in their first quarter.

By contrast, the Line Fund's MoSSBODS-inspired wagers are far fewer in number (four) and far smaller in terms of the total funds ultimately put at risk.

In the chart below, we can see details of the jeopardy.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The largest of the line wagers this week is only for 1.5% of the Line Fund and it's on the Pies giving 2.5 points start and paying $1.95.

In total, the Head-to-Head Fund has put a ludicrously high 21% of the Fund at risk (which, amazingly, is still less than it did in Round 1), while the Line Fund has dangled only 2.2% of the Fund in front of the bookmakers.

The ready reckoner for the 12 wagers is below.

Looking at the potential swings, one game is frightening and another completely terrifying this week, as the returns from the frightening Pies v Dons game span 3.3c, and that from the terrifying Lions v Suns game span 5.0c. In total, a set of best-case results would see the Overall Portfolio climb by almost 9c (and back into the black), while a worst-case weekend would carve another 8c off its price, driving the season loss into double-digits.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS' and MoSSBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog.