According to the bookmakers - and the empirical data strongly supports the hypothesis that they know a bit - no team is more than about a 3-goal favourite this week, which should make for an interesting if difficult-to-tip round.

The week's average line handicap of 13.3 points per game is amongst the lowest average handicaps in home and away rounds we've seen in any round in recent years, beaten only by the 12.9 points per game in Round 18 of 2017, and the 13.1 in Round 1 of 2015.

It also makes for the first time since (at least) 2012 that Rounds 1 and 2 have had sub 14 average expected margins.

We'll all have plenty of excuses come Monday night should we find ourselves down around 50% for correct tips year-to-date.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This apparent uncertainty hasn't stopped the Head-to-Head Tipsters getting solidly behind the (often narrow) favourites, the exceptions being Home Sweet Home, who's of course gone with the nine home teams as his contract demands, and Consult The Ladder, who's gone with the nine away teams based on the fact that:

• five of them won last week and are playing teams that lost
• two more of them won more handsomely last week than their opponents did
• two more of them lost more narrowly last week than their opponents did

The expected narrowness of the margins foreshadowed by the bookmakers is reflected in the Margin Predictors' margin forecasts for the week, none of which portend a victory by more than four goals. It shows also in the mean absolute deviations (MADs), which are small by historical standards both from a Predictor-by-Predictor and a game-by-game view. In no single game does the range of forecast margins span more than three goals.

We see only slightly higher levels of divergence amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, from a game-by-game perspective most notably in the Brisbane Lions v Melbourne game where the MAD is 5.4% points and the forecasts span a 13% point range. Viewed through a Predictor-by-Predictor lens, however, we see very low MADs for them all.

In short, we're unlikely to see large ranges in the performances of the three forecast families this week - they'll either soar or crash together.

WAGERS

Investors face far less activity this week than they did last week, the extent of which comprises just four head-to-head and a single line wager.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The largest of the head-to-head wagers is the only one on a favourite, it a 3.5% bet on the Dons at $1.57. The remaining three bets are all sized roughly in the 1% to 2.5% range and are on teams priced in the $3.00 to $3.15 range.

For the round's lone line wager, we've a smallish tilt at the Lions with just under 3 goals start.

The ready reckoner for these wagers is shown below.

Only one game this week carries a potential swing of 3c (the Lions v Dees game), and five of them carry no swing at all. The Fremantle v Essendon game, by virtue of the largish bet on the Dons, carries a swing of just under 2c.

Across the nine games just 3% of original funds are at risk for a maximum upside of just over 4%. There'll be no substantial damage done to the MoS Funds' or the bookmakers' reputations this weekend.

To finish, here are MoSHBODS' and MoSSBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog.